Friday, April 30, 2004

Trading Track - Winning the mental tug of war.

Jim Cramer said it best "....Did you really think that after a week like this, that we would rally into the weekend with every potential for bad news available and at the ready?".

Still taking massive amounts of pain, but Im winning the mental tug of war to cash it all in and go to bonds. Portfolio is off 5% at this point, and I have no reason to believe that Monday will bring new positive catalysts. In fact the ONLY catalyst out there is the fact that people might just get tired of selling eventually. I'm not swayed, and my hands remain strong. I'm a bull at heart and I continue to look at pullbacks like this as working off the outstanding year we had last year. Although I must admit that this selloff is stinging a lot worse than the last two. Our economy is working like gangbusters and we are emerging from a tough recession. The action this week seems to assume that we are going back to 2002. No way....Didn't work last year, wont work now.

Individual Stock - Let go of the last bit of Echostar for a loss. I couldn't in all good faith carry it any longer with the bets I've made on CMCSA and CHTR. Plus I don't need the extra drag right now. CHTR is getting hit, but I'm only a buyer under 4. If we get to 3.5, Ill take down another 500 shares. Took down another hundo IR today about 2% under my cost basis. PD and AA continue to get hit but are showing bottoming support (no consolation here since we are off big numbers right now), so I feel like we are getting stable with raw materials. FOLKS!! THERE ARE MORE GROWING NATIONS WHO NEED METALS THAN CHINA!! These stocks have become sources of huge amounts of pain.

Bonds - Liq'd nice chunk of cash representing my total realized gain for the year out of the stock PF and Im starting to look at a muni to replace it with. I'm not going to pull the trigger until I can get a +- 10 year muni in the high 4s. Want to buy the 10 year at 5 as well if it can get there. Saving floater income for that. CMO paper seems stable for now and are paying down nicely. Had some big paydowns last month for some and my principal came in quite a bit. Resisting the urge to do any more right now and saving it for the Muni or the T-Bill.

Index - My Q long that was so close to 2080 is now also producing pain. We really didn't see this slide coming so everywhere I look on the indexes are lost opportunities. May consider doubling down the Q stake soon if we get any more oversold. If the market gets too ridiculous, Ill get back into index moves, however right now I'm not going to do anything that produces anymore pain potential.

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