Monday, April 19, 2004

Home on the range.

I hate range bound markets. I don't like the risk/reward of trying to time a range, and when you are wrong, you wind up giving back any profits you made from calling the range correctly.

Today I decided to hang out a bit before I posted to see if anything different or significant would happen. Not a thing. Pretty much all day we bashed around the range. You know...The range between Naz 1980 and 2080? I'm a bit hard pressed to do anything until we get a confirmation of an upward or downward bias. So far I don't know anyone who has been able to call this correctly.

Which leads me to interest rates. Some would say that the reason we have a range bound market is because no one is sure what the impact of higher interest rates will have on the market. This is the key reason why I'm buying dips and special situations right now. Everyone knows the answer is that rate movement under 3 points on the Fed Number only gets us back to normal rates! This is a fact historically, and we have no reason to believe that this will not occur now.

Therefore we need to be buying. Once everyone wakes up and realizes that we can own stocks as the Fed tightens we will go higher. Lower would be an insult to anyone's sense of historical relevance or accuracy.

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