Wednesday, March 31, 2004

Where is this market going?

Well that was an interesting trading day. First it is down, stays down, and then as if on cue we start to get buying into the afternoon. Put buyers stepped in and really hammered any progress we had made but the filp flop really says something to me. Fear still exists in large buckets, and is actively hedging. That is a good thing since we need fear to continue going higher. It just makes the market look unstable to flush out the weak.

Look at our tell...The ten year is at 3.83 off from 3.88. These are small moves but they reflect the level of hedging going into this almighty number on Friday. God. I loathe this job number. Any way you look at it there is so much built into it that whatever it is, we are going to get a violent lurch when it comes out. We will either rinse out every short on our way to Dow 11,000 or test the lows once again. I cant say I know which way it will go, but I sure hope it doesn't stink. The lows are a very painful place to be.

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