So is this how we have to wait out this dismal period? Relentlessly bouncing between positive and negative territory on all the averages? I actually thought we were going to see a bounce today around 1PM, but it just fizzled like everything else. This really is not a market that ANYONE (long or short) can build wealth in....It is...The un-market.
One bright spot is that there are a lot of traders out there talking about a bottom for the NASDAQ. In all fairness, the Nazty has been selling off for much longer than the broader markets and it really SHOULD be the one to get bottomed first. However the last correction we had (early fall if memory serves), the same setup occurred only to find the NAZ lag everything else (first in, last out). Will it be different this time. Mmmmm....not so fast.
The post bell Micron call was downright mediocre. Not boding well for strength in chips tomorrow. Many people use stocks like Micron as a tell for overall PC demand. Im not too concerned with it for the fund. Our strategy doesn't need tech at all for recovery. We (Ethigent) need strong cyclical demand and a healthy interest in core materials. All the things that a recovery should get us and a bit more. Just to be safe though, I've got some Qs and a pretty hefty telecom bet going on in Nortel (exceptionally painful right now). Nevertheless, I feel like our ability to supply China with raw materials is what will swing the undercurrent in the market and our economy. If this thesis is true, we will see a gradual rise in prices from the DD, PD, and ALs of the world......ultimately this type of growth should END in Tech....not begin with it. This would mean that the Naz bottom is a head fake and that we are still stair stepping in the same type of core mix of businesses. If Im right, we will see the Dow turn back first in a nice solid pattern up.
Speculation indeed. But I need something to keep me from hitting the sell button all day long.....Don't I ?
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