Monday, March 29, 2004

Moving higher into mid-day.

Ten year at 3.90.
GE is up for the third day straight.
Commodity, and industrials all broadly higher.
Dow up 121.55

I feel vindicated. Last week I wrote about the idiocy of the panic selling. I had to exercise an extreme amount of strength as analyst after analyst bemoaned the fall of our grand capitalist system. While this type of panic buying is also not good for the markets, I suspect it is really more gap filling than panic buying. A vacuum of money coming in to fill the void that the weak hands created.

Action like this validates the painful value strategy that I've adopted. You have to buy when things are going down, but once they turn, you are so glad you did. The TRIN is rapidly approaching 0 (31) so I expect that this buying is going to give way to some selling soon. Danger in situations like this is that we go too far too fast and get a mini blowoff top. The buying has gotten more orderly as the morning has progressed, so I don't see a big risk of a blow off right now.

The finish is going to really tell if we are entering a new upward phase. If we close strong, watch for us to get overheated going into the jobs number Friday. Id want to consider putting on some index shorts if things get too out of hand.

For now, I'm just enjoying the ride.

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