Thursday, March 25, 2004

Not worth the tape it's printed on.....

.....nope, not one bit. Stocks get pounded for weeks and the bounce that everyone said was going to happen after every "down over a hundo" day..... Finally happened. Is it a dead cat? I really hope it isn't because this is some powerful steam....But the weathered and beaten side of me just has to stand in disbelief.

So I trimmed. I had some nice points in my FDC position, and I took a 1/4 off the table. I know....Not the right thing to do from a positioning standpoint, but I'm superstitious and needed to sacrifice to the "sell it and it goes up" god. And guess what? FDC went down and everyone else went up! So I scored twice. Nice god, that "sell it and it goes down" god.

Why do I know it is going to go back down again? Well one of our tells is still not where it needs to be. The 10 year yield is still a paltry 3.74, and part of my thesis is that for the markets to advance, that fear trade has to unwind. So far.....Many are still firmly shaking in their boots.......And not doing anything. I know, this is not the greatest tell in the world but I feel like it is relevant since fear is what sent the markets to these levels in the first place. The high price of bonds is indicative of that fear. I think ultimately, the great company earnings we are about to hear about will weaken the fear position, and beg these dollars to come participate in an economic expansion once again.

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