Wednesday, May 12, 2004

Trading Track - What more is there to say?

Many of you have emailed me wondering about my thoughts with this market. I haven't posted because I don't think anything has changed since my last post. We are getting the thing that I always knew we would have to face, the interest rate motivated selloff. The knee jerk reaction that most traders get when faced with a new interest rate environment. I was expecting it AFTER the Fed started to tighten, but I have to say I'm glad we are getting it out of the way. I know, this is exceptionally painful for the longs out there (of which I am now fully 100% a member of).

The nice thing about this move down is that we are wringing out a lot of the weak hands involved in the last run up. Many of whom were wondering if they should sell weeks ago, now see themselves at breakeven or a little worse and just capitulating. They have now had enough pain and want to make it stop.

I believe that this sets us up for a big run north after all the capitulation is done. But then again, I've been saying that for two weeks now (thus the lack of posting). Here is the fundamental thesis that works the same way that saying the jobs numbers were wrong when everything else was pointing to a better economy. This is economy is now solidly growing and expanding. This is something that was not present when we crashed so hard in 2000. Everything looked like it was behind us then. Now everything is in front of us and we have the economic engine to participate. People may be selling, but it sure isn't because business is bad. That is flawed logic, and I have to buy that.

No comments: