Meme Watch - The Iraqi Effort is Falling Apart

If you watch a broad spectrum of the media news outlets, I really don't know how you can tell WHAT is happening in Iraq. I watch NBC and they have all but written the effort off, acting as if we should be getting out immediately. Then I turn on Fox and actual soldiers are on TV saying that Iraq really isn't that bad. How in the world can you gauge the geopolitical risk?

While listening to a popular radio program the other day, I heard a soldier tell the host that he is 3 times as frightened about Iraq while watching the news media in the US, than he is while he is actually in Iraq. What is that saying? How are we to react to a news media that seems to want to hold us hostage to the lens with which they view the situation?

Is it just politics? Are we merely moving through a political cycle where everything (including the disruption of a nation) is fair game? Would this have worked during World War 2? Could we have fought a World War while obsessing about abuses in one prison camp? How many prison camps were there in World War 2? Do you mean to tell me this is the FIRST time this has happened? I say no. The only thing different is that the media has become ubiquitous. It seems wrong to me.

Not my job to judge here though. My job is to game this. So, as in any game I have to believe that you have to play this AWAY from the major networks. There is clearly a disconnect with their base when they feed this constant slam on the US administration. They forget that Americans always fall back on pride. Telling them that they have nothing to be proud of is a losers game. This will affect their revenues and further decentralize the average viewer. Making them more niche oriented as Cable variety moves in to fill the void (the harbinger of all this being the Fox New Channel).

Short and sweet. Here is how I would play this:

1. Short the networks and their associated stocks. They will loose viewers as alternatives from cable grow stronger. Mis-steps like their current jag only serve to further destabilize their base.
2. Buy cable companies with broadly diversified offerings for subscriber revenue. They will be the benefactor of the major network exodus.
3. Sell Major Advertising concerns. They will be faced with a landscape of smaller "cable savvy competitors as the network loose their clout. Their contracts with the major networks will render them useless.
4. Buy Niche oriented content plays. Buy networks, both interactive and cable video that cater to wide niches of people that have been overlooked by the networks.
5. Do not buy Network Sponsored entities. These are cable and content outlets that are owned by the networks and thus tied to their downward spiral. Buy scalable pure plays.

That is how I would play it.

DISCLAIMER: I own some stock that fit the above categories. However I do not own many and may have positions that contradict the above advice.