Monday, May 17, 2004

Trading Track - Gaming the 1990 Scenario

I'm hearing that traders are starting to compare this market to the 1990 scenario (Post War Daddy Bush's long slide into oblivion). The idea is that we have to price in a complete rollback of the last year to the beginning of the war, because inflation will kill the consumer, and the banks, and everyone is coming along for the ride. It is at times like these when we question the nature of our recovery in the US, and indeed the world.

I've always found that it is best to stop and take a pause at this type of juncture. We have been here before...Recently...From the 1987 crash, to the first Iraqi War, to the Dot Bomb Bubble, to 9/11, to Madrid. You have to look at the world and ask yourself if doomsday is actually around the corner, and make your trading judgments as a result of what you see. Right now I see instability. That is for sure. A geopolitical situation fraught with uncertainty and the ability to spiral out of control at a moment's notice.

I urge you all to see that while we seem to be teetering on the brink of something we all have no clue how to game, we have never actually gone over the brink. Right now the market is pricing in some sort of cataclysmic crush of problems that will seem to actually defeat our economy soundly. This is an extreme sentiment to say the least. The strength of the US business landscape is great enough to overcome this type of crush. The question is, when will the markets decide that they are at a level low enough to stop the onslaught of selling.

Indexes - Not even thinking about this yet.
Bonds - Had some trading activity here. Took advantage of some of the higher yields in the 18 year range, and took down a block of Floaters with good structure. I have a feeling that these trades are going to look even better once we start seeing the fear bid come back into bonds.
Equities - I'm getting shelacked. That's all I can say. I'm almost fully committed with about 3% cash left. If I try to take advantage of lower levels, I will have to start liq'ing down positions. I don't feel comfortable with that, particularly since this is clearly an exercise to wipe out all the bravado that was in the market. I feel like we can ride it out and not liq anything. Yes. I'm getting killed on all plays from raw materials, to the cable plays to the tech, to the advertising. Scaling into oil stocks over the last three weeks has been a buoy and kept the PF from falling. Right now I'm about to take the stance that most of my stocks pay divs and I'm just going to get paid to wait this one out doing no activity at all. Somehow I think that some angles will materialize and Ill start trading around the market again. Nothing right now.

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