Thursday, May 20, 2004

Cruelty- The ultimate backhand from the Market

Yesterday was just a cruel day for equities. Just cruel. We started the day up big, held it all day long, only to be sold off to a down 30 on the Dow by the time it was all over. Volume surged in the last hour as well, lending an exclamation point on this market that said "Nope, everyone is still too happy and optimistic for the market to move higher.". For those of us who are long, days like yesterday hold an irony reserved only for fools who try to divine the future.

Another funny thing I'm beginning to observe is the complete lack of reference for the type of movement we are seeing. Well respected writers I follow say things like "Why is this happening? I don't know." or "I have no idea who actually buys and sells these types of moves, but I'm sure glad they are there.". A complete lack of perspective.

Most say it is because Oil continues to make higher highs, the 10 year is now hovering around 4.80, and there is a general lack of urgency coming from the Fed.....Not to mention Iraq. I'm sure it is all of those things, but I'm starting to feel like we need to simply game the psychology and forget about fundamentals. When I get to this point, I always stop and remind myself that I'm not in this to fall folly to that markets whims. I'm in this to grow my investments at a more aggressive pace than a bond or a mutual fund. So I sit back down, take my hands off the keyboard, and stop trading. Which I will not do until some semblance of order comes back to this market. I suspect that the reason we can't break support or surge past resistance is because my view is a popular one.

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