The Devil is Only Three Steps Away

So, I just got back from sailing. I always enjoy going sailing because it creates an environment where I can focus on my boat, the weather around me, and my thoughts. I find that the three combine to create some rather unique insight.

Like this weekend. I was sailing off Fort Lauderdale in 4 foot seas with about 20 Kts of wind. Rough, but bearable. As the conditions started to deteriorate, my jib (the sail that provides forward motion) started to shred and wrap around the shrouds of my mast. This created a loud "ripping" noise as the luff of the Jib (the edge of the sail) started to separate from the line that keeps the jib together. As this situation unfolded, I had to take the boat off the tack I was sailing, and point the nose of the boat into the wind to "luff" the sail and hopefully flip the luff line off the mast. This worked and I was able to get the sail under control enough to continue my heavy wind sailing.

After I got things together, It occurred to me that the answer to most crisis situations is almost always three steps away from the problem. In the case of the physical, my sail, a car accident, et al; the answer is three steps backwards. In the case of the mental (dealing with people and emotions), the answer is three steps forward. For example, in the case of the sail above, solving the problem of my sail being wrapped around my mast required me to backtrack three steps (sail wrapped around mast, following a close haul, as the result of sailing on a close reach) and undo the close reach in order to untangle the sail. Alternatively, when dealing with people and emotional issues, tracking forward three steps provides a sense of goal setting and forward motion. Creating a positive mental disposition to problem solving.

The devil is always three steps away.

Strange...isn't it?

The time we spend trying to protect ourselves from the consequences of
our actions wastes all the time we have to create the actions in the
first place.

Sub-Pri-maniac Delusions

Let me type this as slowly as I can and highlight it so we can all savor this moment.

"....The Sub-Prime disaster is going to cost the world around 500 billion dollars before this is all over...."

That is half a trillion dollars in losses from allowing people who can't afford expensive homes to afford them. Plain and simple. Thats the reason the US and global economy is going to have to digest a half a trillion dollars in losses. It isn't that hard to read, but let me tell you, it is going to be hard to work through it.

Ya know I really can't help but point out a recurring theme that I have highlighted in this blog several times. One that also seems to be beginning to take hold in the mainstream US media (Ref: Sixty Minutes Piece on 11/11/2007 on Millenials). This "No failure, everybody wins culture" we are cultivating in the US really HAS to be the reason our entire banking system would feel okay with making loans on real estate to people who can't afford it. I mean, my dad was a banker. He used to agonize over risk portfolios, ensuring that his customers were "worth the risk" he entrusted to them. It seems almost anti-banker to make loans like these.

That must be why we spawned businesses like Countrywide, and American Home Mortgage. To ostensibly shed the risk averse banking culture and inherit a more aggressive, growth oriented strategy towards home finance. Makes sense to me....a new generation of no-loss automatons needs a new type of banker. One that ignores risk and is all about helping "me achieve a higher level of me-ness".

Only problem is we still have the same number of people who can't afford homes that seem to increase in value like magic. Every pyramid scheme has it's inevitable end; and the RealEstate pyramid just came to it's fruition.

Unterminated Media Loops

Ya know? I think like a programmer. I've tried to fight it. Tried to deny the fact that I am interested in how life imiates the way programmers give instructions to processing engines. It is almost as if we are all executing really long instruction sets, endlessly repeating various events and experiences in ever so different ways. These instruction sets are so long that we can't remember where the instruction set began so the events and experiences seem new to us. But they're not.

Think that is a load of hooey?

Consider this theory.......the media is run by people. Just normal people like you and I (even though they seem to think they are something more than that). These normal people are also running thier instruction sets, however once these instruction sets combine, they mutate into an Unterminated Media Loop.

For those non-programmers out there, an Unterminated Loop is a set of instructions that keep repeating over and over and over until all of the system resources are consumed and the server crashes.

An Unterminated Media Loop is the bias that sets up when a certain group of discreet loops join. Now, before you think this is a blog entry on Media Bias...stop. Im not talking about that. Im talking about repretition. For example.....

Has anyone wondered why at the end of every 8 year presidential term (Democrat or Republican) the press is reporting on "A White House Mired in Scandal". I mean, it really wasnt long ago that the Clinton Administration was "mired in scandal". George Bush 1 got a pass...he only got one term. If you re-call, even the venerable Ronald Reagan had his "mired in scandal" couple of months from the Unterminated Media Loop. Im still waiting for the story on how every 8 year term becomes "mired in scandal". If you asked me? I think the media just get bored.....and engineer the whole thing because their loop is getting to repetitious to sell. They need new blood. A new loop.

Global Warming? Can't we just kill that process and bring back the Avian Flu loop?......It does less damage to the economy.
Alberto Gonzales should step down? How about we just do while Sandy Berger shreds documents?

Unterminated Loops....processes in search of a cycle....in this case a news cycle...but you get my drift....