REALLY Vote with your remote....

I think that we should attempt to skew the way news is relayed to us, the information consuming public. The news networks keep saying that the reason they report what they report, when they report it is that they are in tune with what people want to watch.

Witness the latest news du jour.....the Libby/Rove indictments.

By every indicator I have, no one really knows or cares about this issue. I have not yet met anyone who can articulate the situation (outside of partisan "spin-based" sound bites) properly or accurately. I say this since not even the most unbiased of news organization can give "one" unified explaination of the issue (skewing either left or right).

Empty Meme = (adj.) An issue designed to carry the message of a partisan argument disguised as a relevant issue.

I don't know about you, but I find this insulting. Given the above, we can only conclude that this issue is what I would call an "Empty Meme". An issue designed to carry the message of a partisan argument. I mean, since when do we have the news networks telling us that someone "couple possibly be indicted in a few days?". No one seems to want to tell us about all the child molesters that "could possibly be indicted in the next few days!". In this case, the Dems use it to say that "The whole Iraqi war is a farce", the Repulicans use it to show case partisan spin and lack of control of the big picture. The networks seem to be the only people who care about this issue, and unfortunately that says a lot more about their partisan slants as news organizations than it does about their will to publish facutal reporting.

So I say that we really do "Vote with our Remotes". Every time you see an "Empty Meme" being reported on, like the Libby/Rove indictments, change the channel. While I do not think that the ratings are granular enough to see shifts in behavior based on news segments, the volatility between networks would be enough to make a case. If enough people did this, we could actually shape the way stories are reported to us. Imagine if news directors had to consider the "Empty Meme" dilemma and were forced to report facts based on thier own form of measurment.....ratings.

Remember! "If its an empty meme, change the screen!"

The Importance of Being Earnest....or.....Not Letting Things Hit You Over The Head

It is coming. You can hear it. You can see it. You can even taste it in some instances. All you know is it is going to hit you hard when it gets here. It really dosn't matter what "it" is. It just matters that you see "it" before "it" hits you. "It" could be a baseball, a margin call, or a disgruntled employee. The only thing that matters is that you see "it".

Something that I see on the horizon of the markets is fear. I really don't think we have fully recovered from the idea that the fear bid is in the market forevermore. If they go down some gully in Pakistan and actually find Osama, that fear trade ain't going anywhere. Why? Because terror is now fully institutionalized.

You see, "it" in this case is fear. We are all fully invested in it. What Im wondering is what does that do to bonds and fixed income? If, indeed, fear is now with us forever, does that mean bonds stay here to, and any movement in this fear laden space is doomed to a trading range forever keeping the ten year under 5%? It certainly seems like it.

This all leads me to the conclusion that fear is a tax we have to level on everything form the GDP to the Fed Funds Rate. A modifier that ensures we dont get ahead of ourselves. It also creates an environment that I dont think any of us have ever had to deal with. An evironment based on the intangible nature of human fear response. The cure to which is only one thing. Politics and the leadership provided by the government. It is only with this that the fear trade disappears. Never before have politics so intertwined with finance.

Oil - The big head fake

"Oil is going to kill our economy."

"We are addicts, and the Saudis are the pushers."

You hear commentators saying this all the time these days. Amazing to me how if you live long enough, you see things repeat themselves endlessly. Doesnt it feel like the 70's gas crunch is right around the corner?

If you read way back in my blog, you see a theme that suggests that the most evident meme in the news cycle is almost always false. It is the head fake of all head fakes. Yes. At this point in the game, the news media seems all too easy to manipulate. This is why one has to go a bit deeper.

There are three things you have ask yourself when you consider Oil.

1. Why doesn't the government raise the tax on Oil to a point where we HAVE to conserve? They force us to do other things, why not something so basic?
2. If we are so desparate for Oil, why do we allow Oil companies to have a choke hold on our import by accepting far too few REFINERIES.
3. Why do the economic models of most alternative fuel types fail miserably. BioDiesel (a full replacement for Diesel fuel) has been around since the 80s and can not be produced for less than 4.50 a gallon!

It all smells of manipulation. Dont forget, we have had a decade of Oil doing nothing so there has been ample time to rig the system up right with hedges, non-compete deals, and inventory grabs. Yes. Manipulation.

Now, please do think me one of these conspiracy theorists, nor to I think this is a way to simply bilk the American wallet. I feel like in free markets, a certain amount of manipulation is appropriate. However once you start manipulating at the level where national economies are affected, the story has to change. Yes. Oil has always been about power, and in times of contention becomes the central player (Vietnam). So here we are, another thing you can tie back to the global war on Terror.

Finish terrorism, and you will finish this Oil hoard.

Back After a Year of Nothing

Back!

After a full year, Ive come back to continue my markets insight in this blog.

I found it immensely helpful to go back to this blog to see where my trading style has led me, and to see if my predictions were correct. I feel quite vindicated on both fronts. My endless rantings about the incorrectness of the media, and the herd mentality of the markets (both needing to be shunned) seemed to pay off well. Please read the blog posts from last year. Yes there are some dog calls in there, but there are also some great picks.....like KMRT....which at this point, many are saying is the next Berkshire Hathaway.

But that was then and this is now. I dont intend to do the morning/afternoon stuff like I used to. Ill be posting at least twice a week with more macro views on the direction of the most liquid markets in the world......the US equity and bond markets. I also intend to write a bit on the venture capital scene and deals that are getting done that interest me.

See ya in the blogosphere!

Gerry