The Ethi-Letter

Tributaries of Ignorance and Meddle

2009-04-13T06:01:00.004-04:00

Have things REALLY changed? Not the pseudo reality that we see on the network news about Fascism, and Socialist policy making; but out here. In the real world. Are we going to start calling our system a "Hybrid" and actually practice it? Some hybridization of Capitalism and Socialist Governmental Policy?

As a Capitalist, who has been playing by Capitalist rules for all of my adult life, I certainly hope not. Good lord, I thought it was just the rantings of Chris Matthews and the delusions of grandeur practiced only by the "Intelligensia". However now I find real evidence. Now I find real evidence of the Government REALLY getting involved in the actual ebb and flow of the markets.

In today's WSJ, in a piece titled, "Bailed Out Banks Face Probe Over Fee Hikes" we see true, ground level evidence. The piece describes how the committee overseeing Banking Regulation is going to look into complaints about banks raising fees and interest rates as the economy starts to recover. As if the banks raising interest rates was some sort of evil plot to profit from the Recession and their bail out packages.

Anyone working in finance, or even respecting the markets in any way, would know that raising interest rates is the proper response to pricing power. A tightening of money supply. We have seen recent strength in the economy and this is almost a knee jerk reaction by banks. This is a basic market ebb and flow. And our Government is creating it's own tributary of ignorance and meddle.

But I guess this is how it happens. No one sticks a sign in the ground and says "We are now Socialists.". It creeps in. It creates tributaries of ignorance and meddle and confounds the Capitalist system it is infecting. As more of this evidence mounts, those of us who can never live within the bounds of this type of second guessing and fear mongering must begin to stand up and reject it. Write a blog, start a business, BE A CAPITALIST!

Jon Stewart is a simpleton.

2009-03-13T06:41:00.002-04:00

I really wish I could write a blog where a title like that actually caused a sensation. However I can thank the Internet gods for having a place to put my opinion, and hopefully a few of you will connect with my thoughts.

However, excuse me, Jon Stewart is a simpleton.

He dared to sit on his comedy show, and berate Jim Cramer last night (3/11/09), making fun of his sound effects and his market commentary. On his COMEDY show. Jim Cramer, surprisingly, let him walk all over him. Jon Stewart decided direct his collective angst about the financial collapse at CNBC. A news network. Doesn't anyone see the irony of this? A comedy network is blaming a business news network for a systemic, global financial collapse by saying that it's "over-hyping" of the markets are the reason for all this. Thats like the news anchors blaming the weather lady for the rain today. Simpletons, completely self-involved and narcissistic. And dangerous.

Let me try to end this crap right here. I have followed Jim Cramer since April of 2000, so I can say I have some deep background. He has guided me through the markets and given me great entry points to stocks (he sucks, by the way, at exit points). I have learned how to "filter" Jim Cramer enough to understand his market psyche and let that guide me. Jim Cramer is not correct 100% of the time. No one is, however his guidance has allowed me to contain my losses in this morass to roughly 15%. Because I "listen" to him closely and do my homework.

Jon Stewart seems to think the world isn't supposed to "think" when they invest. They aren't supposed to "filter" the world and understand what they are doing. He thinks we blindly listen to CNBC and invest our money according to every dumb pundit they have on. Then he rants that the whole thing isn't fair, and that we shouldn't blame Jim Cramer, but that he is now the face of the crisis. Thanks for the confusion at the end there Jon.

Jon Stewart (and God, I hope you read this) you are a simpleton. Your views last night go beyond the pall. You ARE NOT the media police, and your fart noises and base humor are all you are good for (and I have been a fan for years). I suggest you go back to it, rather than attempt to become the hero of every tanked 401K on he planet. It is a lose/lose situation and you are not equipped to handle it since that angst eventually turns back on you. As it has on Jim.

Please #beacapitalist !!

2009-02-22T20:02:00.003-05:00

Im begging all of you who are kind enough to give me the time to read this. BE A CAPITALIST! Reject these ridiculous policies coming from the Obama Administration. They reward failure and erode the moral foundation that Capitalism is founded upon. That,

Risk exists, and risk has consequences.

If we hurt this, one important precept, we will do horrible damage to the legitimacy of the very capitalist markets that launched the United States to prominence. Capitalism rewards the very spirit of human interaction and social disposition. It is a key foundational element of our success as a nation.

If you don't believe me, believe China! This staunch Communist government adopted Capitalism. Why? Because they ceded to the fact that human interaction requires management of the more guttural aspects of human existence (Greed, Conquest, et al). Capitalism provides a framework that allows individuals to satisfy these needs and serve the greater good of the country by advancing the economy. It is perfect in it's structure and form for what it is and does.

However you can't have Capitalism without risk. Risk requires the threat of loss. Without that threat, there can be no reward. Right now, in America 2009, we have the bill of all the risk we have taken coming due, and some of us will have to pay that bill. The Government, with their poorly thought out, anti-capitalist plans is delaying the payment of that very bill. They need to get out of the way and let it happen.

Fix the Banks First!

2009-02-09T05:55:00.002-05:00

The fears of every true capitalist have recently been realized with the incredible misdirection of resources the federal government is employing with the stimulus package. It is true, the country needs a stimulus to deaden the effects of the economic carnage going on right now. However the economy will NEVER recover without a banking system. Its proper function should be the priority right now, not the appeasement of short term pain points in the system.

This reflects a true problem with the "state of mind" of the Administration. It is pedestrian. It focuses on the surface level issue and does not deal with the root of the problem. Yes, the Obama administration seems incapable of strategic economic thinking, choosing instead to focus on the partisan drumbeat of Nancy Pelosi and the big government crowd. Just listen to Barney Franks on Meet The Press (3/8/09), and you can see the flaw in their thinking. On the program, he illustrates that (paraphrase) "making a job in the public sector is a necessary contribution to the economy" when defending the spending efforts of the current stimulus plan.

Yes. The job contributes temporarily to the economy. However it creates two very big problems. 1. It consolidates job control under the government (not private enterprise) and 2. It is non-productive from an economic standpoint. Meaning that job is not likely to create other jobs and build upon itself like an Entrepreneur starting a business would with the money. This type of thinking is short term and pedestrian and does not "fix" anything but making us feel better for a short period of time.

America needs to take the medicine now. Fix the banks first and forego the fulfillment of Ayn Rand's vision in Atlas Shrugged (Isnt it amazing how close this is all coming to the book? Warren Buffett = John Gault?)

Sitting @ at 10 yr old LAX game

2009-01-31T12:05:00.001-05:00

Why is it that coaches of young sports find the need to yell at the
players continually? If you have kids in sports you know what Im
talking about .... The constant "get over there John" or "thats your
ball Joey" or "go get that kid" that seems to stream out of their
mouths the second the whistle blows?

I was always taught that you talk at practice and exexute at the
game. Heck it is how I live my life now! I yammer up a storm when we
are talking, but whem it comes time to work, im all business. I think
the reason they scream like that is because they lack the organizational discipline to
know that you teach building blocks of knowledge first and put them
together for games? All I know is that when I hear one, i think
"inexperienced leader = bad for kid's growth".

Sailing to Fort Lauderdale

2008-12-18T19:27:00.002-05:00

More Final Cut Pro madness from my trip around the tip of Florida to Fort Lauderdale. During this trip I was able to watch the Jets beat the Patriots from about 150 miles offshore. It was awesome! Both watching the Jets beat the Pats an actually being in the middle of the Gulf.

Look how bad business is on Key West Bight!!

Doesn't this all seem very convenient?

2008-12-12T06:59:00.004-05:00

Generally, Im not a conspiracy theorist. While I find conspiracy interesting to read about in non-fiction, I am mostly reluctant to believe such balderdash BEFORE it has been exposed. However what is currently happening to the US Financial System, and indeed the Global Financial System is strangely scripted as if someone or something is trying to make us all "think" that financial armageddon is around the corner.

I know, Im going to get email about the Illuminati, and the Carlisle Group et al, but lets just take a look at what is going on. More financial services/bank failures than ever before. The brink of insolvency for a mainstay American industry (Autos). And now we have Bernard Madoff with an actual Ponzi scheme the likes of, and size we have never seen (50 Billion!). Do you know where the word "Ponzi Scheme" came from? The Great Depression of the 1930s, when a guy named Ponzi started a pyramid scheme to take money from investors without actually investing their money. Its like some evil Roxie Rockefeller is trotting actors out onto our screens like some sort of a sick, theatrical version of Atlas Shrugged. And it is all happening at lightning speed.

Why is this happening so fast and with such sequenced fervor? It all seems to be going off according to the script and I dont like it one bit. Any time things seem "perfect" whether good or bad, something is afoot and we need to be wary of it. Remember, being "wary" sometimes means saying put, instead of panicking out, of assets. Things are very different now than they were in the 1930s. The things that worked then (money under the mattress, gold) more than likely will NOT work this time around.

My Solution to the Failure of GM and the Auto Makers

2008-11-18T20:39:00.002-05:00

I think we should solve the problem of the auto industry by creating a Silicon Valley for auto making. GM, Ford, and other troubled auto makers should take a "packaged bankruptcy" that allows the pensions and healthcare of GM workers to be separated from the company into a government administered trust. This will take care of the innocent bystanders of this failure of an industry and keep them out of the fray.

Then, GM should be broken up into smaller companies that produce the components of the cars they "used" to build in house. These smaller companies would be on their own and structured to operate within their cash flow. Their job would be to continue to produce a component of the car manufacturing process.

In conjunction with the break up, the Government should create a stimulus package for the Detroit area incenting entrepreneurs to create small car companies using the components produced by the old GM operating companies. This could foster growth similar to the growth we saw in Silicon Valley (Hardware manufacturing giving way to software development giving way to web development, et al). Companies like Tesla and others could create their own ecosystems out of the carcass of the old GM. This ultimately would save more GM jobs and put more ex-auto workers back to work than any auto industry bail out would.

Ultimately the real winners would be the US. Because we will have created a sustainable, grow-able ecosystem of automobile making once again. Opening up avenues for the entrepreneur to thrive or fail on his or her own merits while saving what is best about our current auto industry as the foundation for the next phase of growth.

The auto companies put the lid on growth for all these years. Entrepreneurs like Tucker, and others were crushed by their need to maintain the status quo. It makes sense that a new, more sustainable industry should grow from it's own ashes.

Jets FTW Belated Blog Post

2008-11-15T22:24:00.001-05:00

Taken 150 miles offshore in the Gulf of Mexico while watching the Jets Beat the Patriots on Satellite TV. God Bless Technology

Playing a classic fade setup

2008-11-05T11:44:00.001-05:00

Every time a party obtains a majority in the House, Senate, and the Oval Office the markets behave a particular way. Creating a classic run up into a fade. The blog post explains my comments made following the Obama victory and the ensuing market action the next day.

Nike+ Where are my Nike+ Runners?

2008-11-01T10:48:00.001-04:00

'I'm trading the range!' and Obama's gonna win, you know its true!

2008-11-01T09:35:00.001-04:00

My first video blog post. Much easier than typing this stuff out! Stream of consciousness baby!

In this post we talk about how to trade a crappy market like this, who I think is going to win the election, and a new service from ReadyTechs!

Let me know what you think @ethigent (twitter) or send me an email at ethigent@gmail.com

Summer 2008 Video

2008-10-20T01:16:00.001-04:00

Every year I clean out the hard drive on my cam corder. This is what results.

My Strategy for Managing the Downturn

2008-10-17T06:57:00.002-04:00

Those of you who know me, know I love managing. Im a management freak. I enjoy creating and extending efficiency and go to great lengths to establish legitimacy in areas I consider important. So when the economic climate drastically changes in a compressed period of time, I try to recognize it early and act with great care.

Here we are. October 2008 with a complete lockup in credit markets, a plummeting stock market, and a generally terrified business climate. How does a business survive this crisis in tact? I don't think there is a clear cut answer to this question, but I can tell you what Im doing to be the best steward of my company's future I can be.

Three First Steps

First, remember history. When you look at financial crisis points of the past, you find that knee-jerk reactions are responsible for setting the stage for eventual failure. Essentially putting the nail in the coffin too early. You have to avoid the impulse to act too quickly when you see the danger signs come up on your radar. I prefer to advocate a "surround and strangle" approach to problem points affecting the organization.

Strategy one:

If you must act, address the issue confronting your organization and act within that context.

Example: If you loose revenue due to client defaults, and must cut in your organization, find the most common elements within the client defaults and start there.

Second, change the way you look at financing your organization. If I said that I have a way to run a company without the need for credit; Id have a gold mine on my hands. However that is exactly what small and mid-sized business must do in order to give themselves a fighting chance to survive. In my company, I have instituted a company savings plan. We are raising cash to create a multi-month expense buffer, and as an organization will not spend dollars on anything but essential costs until our goal is reached. To ensure this ongoing, we have also instituted controls that allow for the maintenance of this savings buffer should we have to use it at any point.

Strategy two:

Creating the ability to self-finance through lean times retains equity and creates a strong foundation.

Added Win : This number can generate a hefty interest payment. Establish a separate fund for interest retention and spend it on over the top expenses should you need it.

Third, your clients and your vendors are gold. Treat them that way. Right now business must stick together. If you aren't a public, massively scaled organization, you are dependent on other businesses for your work and revenue stream, and are therefore vulnerable to a cascading stream of business defaults. While this may seem out of your control, information gathering isn't. Make it the business of everyone in your organization to know your customer and collaborate about the status of those customers. In other words, communicate, communicate, communicate.

Strategy three:

Know your customers even better.

Added Win: Customers deserve, and should always get as much attention as you can give them. Done correctly, this strategy pays off at both levels.

Conclusion

There are no silver bullets, and anything can happen really. However assuming an even playing field and a strong hand on your organizational metrics, you can manage revenue downturns, key vendor failures, and staff contractions better with an incremental and focused approach. The primary goal should be to get as early insight into potential problems as possible, act within the context of the issue, and ensure that you have the ability to meet your obligations while this is occurring. As long as you can maintain this level of legitimacy, you can survive to fight (and earn) another day.

Fear of Palin (Someone on the left has "Mom" issues)

2008-10-04T06:59:00.005-04:00

I can always tell when the left gets worried about something. There is an almost immediate influx of stories at the top of Digg (what that says about people "gaming" Digg is something else). It happens without fail. It is almost like a sub conscious achilles heel that they can't contain. Their "politically bottled" rage boils over in a subversive flurry of disinformation and snide snipping at small personal defects.

Take Governor Palin's clear victory in the debates on Thursday night. The next day (and days following) you saw headlines like this:

Fox News: Palin Won VP Debate Because She Had A Bigger Flag Pin
Palin's Tax Return Mystery: Where Are The Per Diems?
Palin's Web Ad Cites Thumbs Up From 'Famous Person'
McCain's Big Gamble Comes Up Snake Eyes

You get the idea. Every one of these stories slammed the Governor with everything from her manner of dress, to her "mom-like demeanor", to utter tirades aimed at her inexperience. The anger is arrogant, and smells like pretentiousness. One of these stories came very close to exposing the Author's own hatred of his mother (and women) in a way that clearly indicated that a Therapist is in his near future. The amalgam of this din of anger reveals that several small blog sites (Huffington Post, The Daily Kos, ThinkProgress, et al) generate the majority of this buzz. Anyone who is at all casually involved with Social News knows this. Yet it seems too coordinated to be done independently.

That said, chalk one up for the Republicans. They have successfully positioned someone who reflects the values and views of a new emergent voting contingent....The (random kid sport) Mom. While it sounds trivial, it is quite extensive. Moms vote, span race and cultural bounds, and there are a lot of them. The constant slamming of her by the Digerati only confirms to this large voting block that "Women Have To Endure More Than Men To Get To The Top.". This ultimately solidifies their position and creates unity. You know? The same unity these Digerati-like blogs feel as they rail against the Bush Administration.

I feel like we have found the first "muck-raking immune" voting strain. It seems the more you dig up on Palin, the more moms rush to her defense. It almost feeds on the bad news. I don't know about you, but I find that beautiful. The media colors our view of events too often; and too often they are completely unqualified to give us that type of a viewpoint. Being able to overcome their veil of disinformation is perhaps the most powerful thing I have ever seen.

The Obama Campaign now has a huge issue. Something completely unexpected, and something that has them unsettled and reeling. This is perhaps most clearly identified by Mr. Obama's complete lack of reference to Palin in any of his recent speeches (with the exception of a few "small time" jabs off the cuff). How do you defeat an enemy that can not be skewered publicly? I say you can't; and it is going to be a wonderful thing to watch how they defend against it.

Fear of the Unknown

2008-09-29T15:08:00.002-04:00

I am sitting at my workstation aghast. I simply can not believe that with the world insisting that the US Government act to curb the spreading credit contagion, that our government can not get past partisanship to create forward momentum. This in the face of a complete shutdown of the credit system. They simply let the bill die. The US Government is fiddling while the entire economic system is on life support. I have never been more ashamed, of the inaction and the morass of our political system.

So now we are into the unknown. I liken it to the feeling one must feel when one finally jumps off a bridge to end their life. There must be point where the din, and commotion of the world just disappears into the whisper of the wind running past your ears; and you wonder what comes next. You are sure you are going to hit bottom eventually, but know you will never know what it feels like. Mostly because no-one ever comes back to tell you.

My readers, we have just been pushed off the bridge by our own representatives. No one really knows what comes next. I follow about 20 different Wall Street and Banking analysts and none of them have any idea what happens to the credit markets without an implied US Government backstop. This should worry every one of us. We are perpetually going to be waiting for the other shoe to drop, mostly because no one knows where this all will end.

Our Moment is Here

2008-09-26T06:30:00.002-04:00

Here is my position on our current economic situation as a nation, circa 2008. The relief package currently before Congress is a bailout of the debt underlying the real estate we ALL participated in for years. It is OUR problem, not some amorphous Wall Street character with a cigar and a Rolls Royce. We ALL participated in the demise, and we ALL have to clean it up to maintain global economic legitimacy.

I know. It sucks, but the damned Buick is gonna get repo-ed if we don't go to the credit counsellor right now!!! As a country. We have to own this crisis and put a lid on it immediately.

I run a business and actively trade in the bond and equity markets. I am a capitalist in the truest sense of the word. It is one of the only things in my life that I can say I truly personify. So trust me when I say that I am all for free and open markets. But lets face it, all this growth? All these excesses we have seen on every "Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous"-like show, that we secretly love to watch and attempt to emulate in our ever so personal ways? All these things were courtesy of the credit we got drunk on for years. WE ALL PARTICIPATED IN SOME WAY, and it is incumbent on us to contain, if not fix, this problem.

I like to think I get to see our economy in a very broad view, and I am adamant that without the US government making good on the mess that it's citizenry created, the world will see massive disconnections in inter bank, and more-so inter country credit. Mostly due to eroding faith in the US Economic system which has long been the hub for the origination of credit and credit instruments. This impacts EVERYONE, and the effect will be incredibly painful deflation of the value of every US asset available. We will literally go backwards in time. Main Street, Wall Street, hide your head in the sand ideo-logue (Republican leadership, shame on you) - street, no one will be spared. You need credit to buy a car, send your kid to college, buy a house, basically, live your life. It will be financial stasis, like a financial coma. Look....its really going to suck if we don't do this. For everyone.

Please call and urge your Representatives and Senators now and urge them to overcome the ideological gridlock and pass an appropriately sized Economic Relief package immediately!!

Eulogy for Robert Baker - Rest In Peace Bob.

2008-09-02T18:15:00.003-04:00

My father in law died recently. He was an outstanding man and a great example of hard work and fortitude. Below is my tribute to him.

=========================================

Edwin Arlington Robinson (1869–1935).
The Pilot

FROM the Past and Unavailing
Out of cloudland we are steering:
After groping, after fearing,
Into starlight we come trailing,
And we find the stars are true.
Still, O comrade, what of you?
You are gone, but we are sailing,
And the old ways are all new.

For the Lost and Unreturning
We have drifted, we have waited;
Uncommanded and unrated,
We have tossed and wandered, yearning
For a charm that comes no more
From the old lights by the shore:
We have shamed ourselves in learning
What you knew so long before.

For the Breed of the Far-going
Who are strangers, and all brothers,
May forget no more than others
Who looked seaward with eyes flowing.
But are brothers to bewail
One who fought so foul a gale?
You have won beyond our knowing,
You are gone, but yet we sail.

I found this poem from the Late 1800s to be quite a fitting tribute to Bob. It speaks of an unnamed Pilot. A pilot whose job it was to keep those in his charge safe from the ravages of the unrelenting sea. Now, after his passing they must carry on using the knowledge he passed down as a guide; knowledge that, while not immediately clear, comes to the writer as his experience demands it. And he realizes the Pilot was right all along.

We have tossed and wandered, yearning
For a charm that comes no more
From the old lights by the shore:
We have shamed ourselves in learning
What you knew so long before.

Bob always seemed to know that things work themselves out. He would always describe for me the long view and forever kept the best interests of those around him close to his heart. He was a Pilot in the truest sense of the word. He didn’t need a title, and he didn’t need to get a salute, he just needed to be heard.

I listened to Bob for over 20 years. He used to tell me that I was too serious, and wondered why I would look so hard to see the difficulty in life. But it is only now that I realize that Bob knew that in the end, all we have is each other. In this way Bob lived his life. An example of steadfast resolve and the virtue of holding on to one’s principles.

When I first met Bob, I will admit, I was trying to impress him. I loved his daughter with such a deep desire, I would have said and done almost anything to make him like me. As I spoke with him for the first time he could see I was looking for something we could have a common ground on. Bob saw this and put his hand on my shoulder and said “Every one of Leanne’s “friends” comes over here and tries to make himself look good. Tell me what YOU like Gerry.” So I did. For three hours. I talked about politics and World War 2 history (one of Bob’s favorite subjects). I felt at ease.

So today I look at that as my job; my final tribute to the man who continually told me to calm down and relax. Bob would want nothing more than for all of you to be at ease, and remember him for the way he helped smooth out the rough edges in our all to consuming lives. When you leave here today, and go home, sit down and watch a good movie, read a book, spend time with your children or perhaps enjoy a glass of wine. Our pilot knew what we do not. That life is too short, and that there is no time for all the complications we manufacture in our heads. Only the time you spend making others feel comfortable and at ease.

One who fought so foul a gale?
You have won beyond our knowing,
You are gone, but yet we sail.

The battle has been joined - No Way, No How, No-Bama!

2008-08-29T07:06:00.003-04:00

I just got done watching Barak Obama's speech to the Democratic National Convention. I am speechless, but I have to admit, I should have seen this coming. I followed Barak for quite a while on his bid to become the nominee, and even went to a few of his events. I listened to him quite a bit as he felt his way around trying to develop his platform. Last night, he let that platform, his thoughts about the future of our nation, and the most importantly the platform of the Democratic National Party out of the bag.

As a true capitalist. Someone who relies on no-one but myself and the companies I form to make a living. Im insulted, angry, and disillusioned. Am I scared? No way. Will I fight? Absolutely, with every last breath and dollar I have. The Democrats must not be allowed to win this election with this kind of lunacy at the forefront.

We have China, a country with no environmental laws, child labor restrictions, corporate governance, or business rules of any kind nipping at our heels. America is about to lose her position as the top economy in the world and we have a major party talking about...... Letting everyone off the competitive hook. Not on my watch Democrats. You will not redistribute my income, you and your political correctness can just check it all at the door.

I know that they cant just come right out and say it, but the Democrats would like to see a Socialist America. Lets just face it! Not one of the the things said last night had anything to do with restoring America's ability to compete in the global economy. They have everything to do with creating a government that "does it for you". A government that will be larger, and one that penalizes independence and success in business. I have no doubt that income redistribution is part of the plan, but thats just way too insidious to talk about at a national convention, so it is veiled in phrases that reference "giving back', and helping those who cant help themselves. Honestly, do we really think the Democrats are going to cast a net that just gives out money and help to anyone? When you listen to Barak, it certainly seems so.

For me the most telling moment came right at the beginning. When they had the auto worker come out and talk about how George Bush let his friends jobs go overseas. The sad irony of that being that the CLINTON administration signed NAFTA. The agreement that sent those jobs overseas. Now, this guy gets up on national TV and blames George Bush. Once again though, I should not be surprised, Disinformation is the tool of the Socialist.

At this point Im done giving the Democrats and Barak the benefit of the doubt. The battle has been joined, and I just enlisted.

iPhone Hell Redux

2008-08-11T07:21:00.003-04:00

What a great ending to my iPhone hell story.....

After posting my recent description of the account loop I was in at AT&T, I received a twitter and a call from AT&T. Seems the right people read my story and they were more than eager to help me with my problem (names spared to avoid any issues since the last guy who helped me at AT&T got fired). Within days I was able to get my iPhone and account straightened out. I still dont think I have the "mark" removed from the account since no one said they were doing that. But I was able to finally cancel the new phone number I got at the launch and thankfully keep the phone number I have been using for years.

To quote the guys in the AT&T store. "Wow, I have seen a lot of problems, but I REALLY feel sorry for you." I guess that says it all. Problem solved. Thanks for listening AT&T. There are some very savvy people on your staff (how often do you hear THAT?).

My Own Personal iPhone 3G Hell

2008-08-04T05:55:00.003-04:00

I'm writing this for a couple of reasons:

1. Personal Therapy - I feel like I should "get it out", because the resentment and dissatisfaction are immense.

2. Im so tired of explaining it - The debacle that is the relationship between Apple and AT&T is just awe inspiring in it's magnitude.

So here goes.....

I, too was wooed by the next version of the iPhone, the iPhone 3G. The first iPhone rollout went so well from an "in-store" perspective that I have to admit that I kind of looked forward to hanging out in line with my fellow gear junkies. Discussing the latest goodness that the Willie Wonka of Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs was about to bestow on us. I should have known that soon, things would go horribly wrong....when everyone started talking about how you can't leave the store without an activated iPhone.

I have to admit. I recalled immediately the problem that was "activation" on the first iPhone. You see, I have an unfortunate affliction. I have been branded by AT&T as being somewhere in between a personal account and a business account from when I was converted from Cingular. For some reason, the account I have is coded with some sort of code that has become a mark on my very sanity. If I want to keep my existing phone number, I have to put up with the inevitable, gut wrenching "Is your account a business account?" from the AT&T minion helping me at the time. The very phrase gives me chills.

But I digress. I assure you, the above is very relevant to my story.

As the line moves forward, trouble began almost immediately. The once smiling Apple staff handing out bottles seemed to become a bit agitated. Trouble was "abrewin'" at the head of the line. But still we had high hopes. It all started going south when a female senior Apple staffer started walking up and down the line asking everyone if they had a business account. Seems if you had a business account to convert, you had to go to an AT&T store. We found this out after having waited for about four hours. I admit I thought about telling her about my affliction. My brand, my scarlet letter that had created so many problems for setting up new devices. But I could not believe she would have understood. No one understands....not even the people who are supposed to.

I don't know why I didn't get out of the line right there. The first iPhone launch had me purchase a new iPhone with a new number and then convert later. This worked okay, so I figured I could do the same in the store. I waited the remaining two hours and got to the head of the line. I walked up to the desk, chose the white one, and the process began. I could feel a chill forming at the base of my spine. Like the one you get when you are trying to buy alcohol while under age? When the clerk is checking your ID? "Please don't ask, please don't ask." I panted as the "Genius" entered my activation information. Then it came....the moment still brings a shudder....."Is this a business account?"....my knees gave way and I feel down on the hard brushed aluminum floor. Just kidding, but I did start to sweat.

Thus began my latest hell.....

After two hours of arguing with the woman who told me I couldn't wait in line with a business account accusing me of having a business account (I felt like a leper); and a long stint at the AT&T office upstairs in the mall, I left with a new iPhone 3g with a new phone number. I figured, Ill just wait a few days, convert the account and drop the new phone number. I mean, even the AT&T store manager, Bill Hickman agreed that my account was a personal one and should have been honored. Curse you...oh evil AT&T mark.....

Then it began....

Bill Hickman told me to come back in a few days, and he would do the conversion. So I did...but Bill had been fired. Maybe because he was doing these conversions? Even though the problem was poor account coding by AT&T's database administrators? If so, shame on you AT&T....Bill was the only staff member who even acted like he gave a crap.

Now, in addition to my brand, my cursed brand, I am now a criminal in the eyes of AT&T for going around their strict system. I call AT&T and they tell me I have to go into an Apple store to return the phone and get a new phone. I go to the Apple store and the staffer tells me that if he does that, my account code "brand" will potentially leave me with no phone at all. I truly can not break from the cycle. It is the very definition of hell considering that I actually like my iPhone and want to use it without having to forward calls from my old iPhone to this new one.

Seems the only way to truly break free is to give up my phone number, but frankly, I resent the fact that an account coding issue that happened when AT&T was converting the Cingular customer database has to cause me to change out a phone number I have been using for over 5 years! So the fight continues. Can you help? Please email me at ethigent@gmail.com if you can and perhaps someday I will be delivered from the bondage of the mark that AT&T has branded me with.

I Love A Good Conspiracy

2008-07-07T08:16:00.003-04:00

So......today on Cawfee Tawk....the great Oil Price Conspiracy of the 2008 Election. The precipitous rise in the price of oil looks a lot like the turmoil created in the British Pound when, noted "Liberal Guerilla" George Soros almost singlehandedly took down the world's currency markets. Giving rise to the idea that the rise in Oil is part of a "vast left wing agenda" to destabilize the world's energy markets in order to affect deep change in global ecological environment issues. In addition, this "timed turmoil" creates a "foundation of collusion" for a Democrat Presidential win as the Democrats hold our nose to the energy crisis by blocking efforts to drill in Anwar or the far Continental Shelf.

Discuss.......

New Running Shoe Update

2008-06-15T10:04:00.001-04:00

I just got some new running shoes from Nike. They are the

Nike Free + line. The whole concept behind it centers around a new idea that
running barefoot is better for your feet than shoes with various
support options.

After my first run in them I have to say I agree. Overall I had to
get used to the lack of arch support, but once I adjusted, I noticed I
was striking the ground much more effectively for my muscles. Really
cool. It actually feels like you are running barefoot. You can
stretch your toes out and grab the surface. More as I run in them.

Barak Obama is NOT an agent for change but a vessel for the same Democrat nonsense that keeps losing them elections..

2008-06-14T06:24:00.004-04:00

For some time now, I have been considering the idea of supporting Barak Obama. I too feel like it is time for a change in America, and wanted very much to believe that Mr. Obama could bring a new form of leadership to Washington. A new form of leadership that would ultimately help our government evolve from the decided morass of deadlock it is right now. I was also swayed by friends who I respected tremendously who were advocating hard for Barak Obama.

After having looked at his platform, and his public speeches, I have to say that I am ultimately dismayed at what I am finding. I started this research eight months ago after having heard Mr. Obama speak at a small gathering in New York City. I was initially attracted to his want to embrace technology, by producing an actual Technology Platform Plank. This was all I ever wanted from a candidate, replete with a "CTO of the United States-like role". This, combined with his amazing ability to speak with vision and compassion seriously swayed me.

I am writing this blog post as someone who WANTED to believe. I even went out of my way to ignore the fact that he wasn't really saying anything of substance in these meetings . I chalked it up to the idea that a candidate needs to let his presence develop in a campaign and that coming out too early on issues can be death.

Now I find that Barak Obama is not the agent for change we have all come to see him as. As his platform evolves and real substance begins to drip from the cracks, we find the same Democratic platform issues wrapped up in the Barak Obama "Lets Change this Thing" fervor. Mr. Obama's campaign has either been hijacked by the Democrat leadership, or it was simply a vessel for wrapping the same ideas that lost the Dems the election in the successive two elections. It is all there for us to see:

1. Raise taxes using an unrealistic standard for the term "wealthy American". Does anyone NOT want to be thought of as "wealthy"?

2. Overshoot on healthcare to a level that we kill innovation, and hurt the very people we want to help....the caregivers.

3. Degrade, threaten, and chastise American business leaders, with no sound grasp of the complexities of actually "doing" business. Making it almost a given that our best and brightest shy away from running public companies.

4. Tell everyone that they want to create more jobs, then raise taxes on the very people responsible for creating new jobs. Small and Entrepreneurial business.

5. Displaying an unrealistic view of the world's political balance by threatening to open up negotiations with terrorist harboring nations, advancing unrealistic goals for an Iraqi withdrawal, and dealing with the now-irrelevant United Nations.

There is more, and obviously these are concatenated opinions, but this is the Democrat National Playbook talking, not a "Candidate for Change". I think you will find that all the circular logic that we got out of Gore, and then Kerry, is now being doctored up to come back to us as "Change for Washington". Yeah.....I bet. Change in the form of higher taxes when EVERYONE in America is suffering from the highest inflation in years. Change in the form of MORE government, not less. Change in the form of a ham-handed and ill advised rush to overhaul healthcare, creating a fully socialized, de-incentivized system that will bring us not the best and brightest, but the mediocre. Change in the form of dangerous, sadly naive foreign policy that will have us making deals with those who call us The Great Satan.

Last, but more importantly, Im disillusioned. I so wanted to see a true leader in Barak Obama, that I forgot about the real reason someone gets to the top in our political system. Perception. Or the idea that it isn't what you say but HOW you say it. I am disillusioned with those whom I respect. Those who so fervently support Barak Obama, and blind themselves to the idea that they are supporting a Trojan Horse for the Democrats to employ their social experiment on our nation. Or perhaps they already know this, and I am the one who is blind. This can only exacerbate my disillusion and force me to seek an alternative. I hope you, my reader, will as well.

Why do we blog, twitter, and otherwise syndicate our thoughts?

2008-05-25T06:24:00.002-04:00

When you really step back to look at it, "thought syndication" is an interesting phenomenon. It is the ultimate catharsis of a hidden human psychosis. The fear of being forgotten.

Really. Why would we want to twitter every moment or blog our deepest feelings (or the antithesis of such)? We want the world to know who we are and what we contribute to the shared human experience. Isn't that the goal of every human? To not be insignificant? To make a meaningful contribution to the mortal coil we find ourselves locked in.

Or is that just people like me? Does the "blogosphere" or the "tweets" of today represent the true heartbeat of the world? Or does it simply represent a slightly-narcissistic, type-A, highly opinionated, extremely small group of people who have figured out how to harness an ever growing array of "publishing tools" for their ideas? Some of us (myself completely included) have figured out how to have an idea pop into our head and have it echo from our brain to Twitter, to our Blog, to our Social Networking profile pages.

Increasingly, I am beginning to think that our deepest fears are true. We are alone. We are simply speaking into the void. Without action, all of this syndication is meaningless. Social Network, Web 2.0, whatever buzz word you want to call it today needs to evolve and it needs to become real.

Don't Let Yourself Off The Hook!

2008-05-14T07:53:00.002-04:00

Personal Responsibility

Lets just drink that concept in for a moment....what does it mean to you? I think it would be safe to say that it means different things to different people. However the general gist of the concept is "The ability to accept the consequences and rewards of one's actions. The ownership of one's ideas and actions."

People who accept personal responsibility are less likely to give up easily, complete objectives thoroughly, and generally are considered to be the backbone of civilized society. These people accept the challenges of innovation and reap the rewards of the risks associated with those same challenges. These people are fully alive, and all you need to do is see the thousands of successful business and political folks as evidence. Nearly all of them exhibit personal responsibility for their actions (with the exception of those in Hollywood or Network News, where good things happen to bad people all the time).

The consequence of not accepting personal responsibility is akin to death. Allowing yourself to get off the hook for your own actions compromises the very spirit that keeps your heart pumping. And you regress. You move into a childlike state of denial and acting out against those who exhibit personal responsibility. People like this generally quit at the first sign of trouble, duplicitously align their actions with many opposing forces, and typically are frustrated with their inability to advance their cause. Their whole life could change in an instant if they simply had the inclination to own what they create (in any way).

This self-perpetuating spiral is a strong drug. The ability to compromise one's spirit affords a malaise that holds people in it's grip for their entire life in some cases. Their only hope is the very people they rail against. Those who accept the responsibility to bring them back to reality; back to a life in which every breath is a reaffirmation of their ability to move forward and advance themselves as human beings. Because in the end, thats all we have. The ability to connect and expand one's thoughts and actions for posterity.

Am I The Only One Who Sees This?

2008-04-30T06:24:00.002-04:00

The 2008 US Presidential Race is really quite a spectacle. This year I am finding myself more sympathetic to the Democratic candidates. Particularly Barak Obama. I really can't say Im a fan yet, but I like the way he is handling this issue going on with his former minister. He just keeps letting the old man bloviate, while getting to publicly reject all the nonsense. It makes a clear thinking person like myself like him even more. I am completely unswayed by the Right's position that he is "guilty by association". If that were true, every Republican out there would be dammed to hell (wait, maybe it IS true).

That said, I think we all have to look at what is happening in the Democratic party, and realize that we are getting a real preview of what a Democratic administration will look like. Endless, meaningless debate about minutia. This while the credit contraction squeezes our economy, our economic enemies strengthen their positions on our wealth, and the social fabric in our society continues to tear. Ever hear the story of Nero fiddling while Rome burned? The Democrats embody this notion to me. Barak is at least showing some skill at "tamping down" the emotional raving lunatics that comprise the far left of the Democratic party.

Really though. While the Republicans simply say nothing (not acceptable), the Democrats endlessly debate. Either way we get nothing. No action, and no real solutions. DRAFT MIKE BLOOMBERG!!!

Leanna in Captiva

2008-04-25T10:53:00.000-04:00

After a busy season....leanna returns to her regular cruising grounds
on the west coast of Florida. Here she is in Captiva at her favorite
spot. Tween Waters Marina. Just feet from the Gulf.

Thoreau for breakfast

2008-04-12T19:24:00.004-04:00

"Most people live lives of quiet desperation, and die with the song still in their hearts."

- Henry David Thoreau

I love that quote. I love it because it inspires me to "let it all out" and reach as high and as far as I can. Because when the day comes that I look back and wonder if I wasted my life or not, I want to be able to say "not a second".

Even as I type that, I worry that I haven't lived enough of life today, and I have to remind myself that sleeping in front of the television is just as awesome as running a well managed company. Do what you have to.....but insist on living life on your terms. It is the only substance you really have in this world.

Starting the ride home

2008-02-23T06:50:00.000-05:00

In Fort Laudedale dropping off rental car.

Successful Circumnavigation!

2008-02-22T17:33:00.001-05:00

.....of the southern tip of Florida. Back at our home port of Cape
Coral Florida. It was a great trip with a lot of scary moments and a
lot of energizing ones too. We all stepped up to things we didn't
know we could do. Try to get that from the a Hyatt resort.

Off Marco/Cape Romano

2008-02-21T21:19:00.000-05:00

Landfall!

I know. This is a picture of the moon. But my iPhone can't seem to
focus on the lights of the coast this far out.

Everything turned pink

2008-02-21T21:13:00.000-05:00

Post sunset.

Sunset on the gulf

2008-02-21T21:07:00.000-05:00

Sun starting to set

2008-02-21T20:46:00.000-05:00

Way out in the middle of nowhere.

Picked up some hitchhikers

2008-02-21T20:38:00.000-05:00

About 150 miles offshore. I'll bet they were tired.

Leaving Key West

2008-02-21T10:49:00.000-05:00

@ 10:30 am. Expect a 3am arrival in Cape Coral.

Hard Rock Cafe

2008-02-20T18:50:00.000-05:00

Last dinner in Key West.

Sweet Key West Ride

2008-02-20T17:10:00.000-05:00

Orange with white pokadots. Quite the head turner. At least Sophia
was happy.

Ernie's Place

2008-02-20T17:01:00.000-05:00

The venerable Ernest Hemingway's home. Really interesting information
about his life and his adopted home town of Key West.

NOT a place to bring kids. They just aren't as interested in his
four wives or his beautiful yacht Pilar.

The Southernmost Point!

2008-02-20T10:35:00.000-05:00

Searching for Hemmingway

2008-02-19T18:39:00.000-05:00

A KW landmark

Cheeseburger Cheeseburger

2008-02-19T18:25:00.000-05:00

A favorite of ours. And Jared won 15 bucks at bingo today!

The Galleon...finally

2008-02-19T13:27:00.000-05:00

Finally a nice big slip. It has been the trip of crappy slips. But
now, the mother of all slips. Two days in Key West to come.

Sophia is in Key West mode

2008-02-19T11:45:00.000-05:00

All ready for the pool.

Turtle Kraals

2008-02-19T09:21:00.000-05:00

For breakfast! Best in Key West.

Gotta move to the Galleon today. Have 15 kts of wind pinning me to
the dock.

Jared' is Full

2008-02-18T19:03:00.000-05:00

......of Fogartys!

Fogarty's

2008-02-18T18:24:00.000-05:00

Our favorite place in KW. Get the Tex Mex rolls!

Key West! Finally

2008-02-18T18:02:00.000-05:00

Check out the wacky way they made me park!!!

Temp slip for today. Moving to the Galleon tomorrow afternoon.

Approaching Key West

2008-02-18T16:15:00.000-05:00

I don't think this picture shows it. But trust me, its there.

Playing UNO

2008-02-18T14:09:00.000-05:00

Off Sugarloaf Key

7.8 its
12 its of wind

Off Spanish Harbor

2008-02-18T13:10:00.000-05:00

Fellow cruiser

Off Marathon

2008-02-18T12:05:00.000-05:00

Wind now in the 10-15 range. Much smoother.

The squall

2008-02-18T07:41:00.000-05:00

This is what we left in. Taken from behind AFTER it passed us.

Good Riddance Holiday Isle

2008-02-18T07:37:00.001-05:00

Left at 7 am. 20 its and a squall. That's how bad we wanted to get
out!

Sophia got her first kiss!!

2008-02-17T17:22:00.002-05:00

We are all so proud.

But really, this was at Theater of the Seas in Islamorada Florida. If you are in the area. It is worth the visit. They truly seem to care quite a bit about showing you wildlife in their own environment. Great time.

But they had a shark !!!

2008-02-17T15:09:00.000-05:00

Tried to stick Jason's head in it. Didn't fit....

Holiday Isle Marina

2008-02-17T15:04:00.001-05:00

Good? Not so much. Very old and dirty.

Wing on Wing

2008-02-16T18:55:00.000-05:00

Off Tavernier Key. Glorious sailing here!

Off Cape Florida

2008-02-16T10:14:00.000-05:00

SHALLOW!

Sunrise

2008-02-16T07:04:00.000-05:00

Off Miami Beach. Making very good time at 7.5 its

Leaving Fort Lauderdale

2008-02-16T06:39:00.000-05:00

6:30 am. Off Hallendale Beach

The start of our journey. Heading to Islamorada. Holiday Isle
marina. Woke everyone up at 4:30 am. They still seem happy. School
of 7 dolphins swimming in our wake for an hour now.

I Love My Sailboat

2008-02-13T17:25:00.000-05:00

When you get to my age......there aren't a lot of things that make you
simply exclaim "I love that ......" My 2001 Moody 38 is one of those
things.

OLPCs and Nigerian Spam - Is there a link?

2008-02-03T13:25:00.000-05:00

I own a network management company. One of our larger business lines is the Collocation Managed Services space. In this business line, my networking team manages the networks and servers that serve large clustered web sites. We have gotten very good at it over the years and are proud to call quite a few high traffic sites our clients. This makes it very easy to see trends in web site management as they occur.

Recently (early-December-ish) we have seen an amazing rise in the amount of spam coming form Nigeria. These spammers are much more than email spammers (although there are quite a few in this category clogging up our email spam filtering servers). They have more sophisticated tools like bots that create hundreds of user accounts on a site in order to spam the members; or bots that simply query large amounts of information from an eCommerce product database. All are dangerous, and all consume a large amount of our time (blocking subnets, filtering out firewall rules, et al). The one consistent fact is that they are all coming form Nigerian subnets. I think we have blocked so many Nigerian subnets that the entire country must be experiencing the equivalent of an Internet brown out. Because if WE are doing it, then so are most of the providers upstream from us.

The one event that seems to correlate with this onslaught (let me stress that there was a lot of abuse coming from Nigeria before, but not on this magnitude) is the mass release of the OLPC (much to Nigeria). [timeline] [Nigeria Article]

I have no other evidence than the correlation of the two events. However it does seem curious that an influx of cheap, easy to own and run PCs into a location already known for Internet abuse, correlates so closely to a notable increase of the same abuse. Could the OLPC project be off course? Could the rush to provide this clearly life-changing technology actually be creating a negative effect? I can only speculate. If you run a high volume web site, I invite you to email me. Please tell me if you are seeing the same thing. I would also be glad to share my information in aggregate (I cannot reveal any details about the sites we manage) to the OLPC organization. If we as systems professionals are going to do something so clearly good for all of mankind, then it makes sense that we should police and understand the impact of that generous behavior..

Rudy is Out? When did he get started?

2008-01-31T11:48:00.000-05:00

So Rudy is out of the race. America's Mayor, Rudy Giuliani dropped out of the race after a dead heat with Ron Paul at 13% of the vote. Rudy spent MONTHS in Florida, clearly at the urging of some radical strategist who must have done some math wrong. Why would such a well funded and clearly focused guy try such a risky strategy (Ignore Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and only focus on Florida and California).

I have only one answer that I can figure out. Rudy was taking a nice Florida vacation on his contributors he never really intended to win. Did he really intend to win by insulting the two most critical states in the Primary process? I mean, think about it? Rudy is tired, he is getting up there in years. I think he just said...."Hey! I spent all that time dreary NY. Ill just run for President and have a free six week vacation in Florida by trying this radical new political move." Strange? I think not. Stupid? I think we are going to have to see the fallout before we give Rudy the political darwinism award.

In his concession speech he looked tanned, and rested.....by great contrast McCain looked haggard, tired, and not ready for what is to come. So who really won? McCain? Or Rudy? Makes you wonder.

My Predictions for 2008

2008-01-06T20:13:00.000-05:00

The other day, my son asked me what my predictions for 2008 were. It thought this was kind of funny since he never asked me that before, and I have to admit I was caught off guard. But now that I'm sitting here, I thought I would give it a try. So here we go......my predictions for 2008 on January 6, 2008. I hope I don't make too much of a fool of myself:

1. The Sub-Prime/Alt-A/Prime Mortgage Problem will be twice as bad as it appears today. That is, the amount of bank, and financial institution write-offs globally will be double what it is today (around 100 Billion). To extend this prediction, I also predict that Europe and even the Middle East will experience their own Sub-Prime/Alt-A/Prime Mortgage crisis. They will not be as deep as the United States, but they will contribute to the problem.

2. Location Based Services will be the next Internet "killer app". The advent of usable, easy to understand location based services will take their place as the next wave in Internet development. The ones that rise to the top will be able to utilize the broadest array of phone handsets; and the winners in this space will exploit specific, singular niches abandoning the "everything portal" concept in use today on phone handsets.

3. This will be the election year that Independent Candidates take their place as equals to the two major parties in the political spectrum. The proliferation of the Internet and the ability to fund raise outside of the major parties will enable several candidates to run for President in the 2008 election that are not the nominee of the Republicans or the Democrats. This will create a much more significant split in the American psyche than Ross Perot could have ever imagined and will set the stage for an Independent win in 2012; if not 2008.....but I'm not going quite that far.

4. We will see the first death on live TV. Going out on a limb here, since I can't believe that reality TV has made it as far as it has in the first place. The velocity and the voracious nature of the genre dictates that this happen in order for it to continue as a viable category on television.

5. China will move from economic partner to economic aggressor, and the US/China trade stance will change forever. We will see China begin to utilize it's incredible global economic clout in a bold and egregious move against the United States economy. While I can not predict what this move will be, It will be counter to the US economic strategy enough to be seen as the first salvo in what can only be a long and difficult economic war.

Okay......I'm out of breath. That should be enough precitin' for now. Hopefully, this time next year if the stars stay in line and I remain healthy Ill review and see how I did.

The Devil is Only Three Steps Away

2007-12-30T18:54:00.001-05:00

So, I just got back from sailing. I always enjoy going sailing because it creates an environment where I can focus on my boat, the weather around me, and my thoughts. I find that the three combine to create some rather unique insight.

Like this weekend. I was sailing off Fort Lauderdale in 4 foot seas with about 20 Kts of wind. Rough, but bearable. As the conditions started to deteriorate, my jib (the sail that provides forward motion) started to shred and wrap around the shrouds of my mast. This created a loud "ripping" noise as the luff of the Jib (the edge of the sail) started to separate from the line that keeps the jib together. As this situation unfolded, I had to take the boat off the tack I was sailing, and point the nose of the boat into the wind to "luff" the sail and hopefully flip the luff line off the mast. This worked and I was able to get the sail under control enough to continue my heavy wind sailing.

After I got things together, It occurred to me that the answer to most crisis situations is almost always three steps away from the problem. In the case of the physical, my sail, a car accident, et al; the answer is three steps backwards. In the case of the mental (dealing with people and emotions), the answer is three steps forward. For example, in the case of the sail above, solving the problem of my sail being wrapped around my mast required me to backtrack three steps (sail wrapped around mast, following a close haul, as the result of sailing on a close reach) and undo the close reach in order to untangle the sail. Alternatively, when dealing with people and emotional issues, tracking forward three steps provides a sense of goal setting and forward motion. Creating a positive mental disposition to problem solving.

The devil is always three steps away.

Strange...isn't it?

2007-12-12T20:08:00.000-05:00

The time we spend trying to protect ourselves from the consequences of
our actions wastes all the time we have to create the actions in the
first place.

Sub-Pri-maniac Delusions

2007-11-12T09:04:00.000-05:00

Let me type this as slowly as I can and highlight it so we can all savor this moment.

"....The Sub-Prime disaster is going to cost the world around 500 billion dollars before this is all over...."

That is half a trillion dollars in losses from allowing people who can't afford expensive homes to afford them. Plain and simple. Thats the reason the US and global economy is going to have to digest a half a trillion dollars in losses. It isn't that hard to read, but let me tell you, it is going to be hard to work through it.

Ya know I really can't help but point out a recurring theme that I have highlighted in this blog several times. One that also seems to be beginning to take hold in the mainstream US media (Ref: Sixty Minutes Piece on 11/11/2007 on Millenials). This "No failure, everybody wins culture" we are cultivating in the US really HAS to be the reason our entire banking system would feel okay with making loans on real estate to people who can't afford it. I mean, my dad was a banker. He used to agonize over risk portfolios, ensuring that his customers were "worth the risk" he entrusted to them. It seems almost anti-banker to make loans like these.

That must be why we spawned businesses like Countrywide, and American Home Mortgage. To ostensibly shed the risk averse banking culture and inherit a more aggressive, growth oriented strategy towards home finance. Makes sense to me....a new generation of no-loss automatons needs a new type of banker. One that ignores risk and is all about helping "me achieve a higher level of me-ness".

Only problem is we still have the same number of people who can't afford homes that seem to increase in value like magic. Every pyramid scheme has it's inevitable end; and the RealEstate pyramid just came to it's fruition.

Unterminated Media Loops

2007-04-23T19:11:00.000-04:00

Ya know? I think like a programmer. I've tried to fight it. Tried to deny the fact that I am interested in how life imiates the way programmers give instructions to processing engines. It is almost as if we are all executing really long instruction sets, endlessly repeating various events and experiences in ever so different ways. These instruction sets are so long that we can't remember where the instruction set began so the events and experiences seem new to us. But they're not.

Think that is a load of hooey?

Consider this theory.......the media is run by people. Just normal people like you and I (even though they seem to think they are something more than that). These normal people are also running thier instruction sets, however once these instruction sets combine, they mutate into an Unterminated Media Loop.

For those non-programmers out there, an Unterminated Loop is a set of instructions that keep repeating over and over and over until all of the system resources are consumed and the server crashes.

An Unterminated Media Loop is the bias that sets up when a certain group of discreet loops join. Now, before you think this is a blog entry on Media Bias...stop. Im not talking about that. Im talking about repretition. For example.....

Has anyone wondered why at the end of every 8 year presidential term (Democrat or Republican) the press is reporting on "A White House Mired in Scandal". I mean, it really wasnt long ago that the Clinton Administration was "mired in scandal". George Bush 1 got a pass...he only got one term. If you re-call, even the venerable Ronald Reagan had his "mired in scandal" couple of months from the Unterminated Media Loop. Im still waiting for the story on how every 8 year term becomes "mired in scandal". If you asked me? I think the media just get bored.....and engineer the whole thing because their loop is getting to repetitious to sell. They need new blood. A new loop.

Global Warming? Can't we just kill that process and bring back the Avian Flu loop?......It does less damage to the economy.
Alberto Gonzales should step down? How about we just do while Sandy Berger shreds documents?

Unterminated Loops....processes in search of a cycle....in this case a news cycle...but you get my drift....

Capitalism - An Ideal for Living

2006-12-24T07:52:00.000-05:00

Many people want to write the eulogy of Capitalism these days. They beg us to create a long view and see that the ideological underpinnings of Capitalism are devoid of substance and emotionally unfulfilling. They tell us it can only lead to destrcution and ruin due to its vapid twists and emotionless turns.

They want future authors to write the follwoing eulogy in the RSS feeds of the future:

"They blindly followed an Ideological path that was deeply rooted in the consuption of goods and services; ultimately consumption became the sole "lubricant" for political and soical discourse, and the society crumbled.".

But I think they are just victims of a bad upbringing. An "Un-Capitlaist" upbringing. The Socialist movements of the 1920s and 1930s injected a remorse into this country. An obtuse social meme that created disgust at the idea of consuption for the sake of ideology. Some embraced this philisophy and others rejected it. That is the beauty of America. I think having the two co-exist is like mixing oil and water. There is no logical way one can compliment the other.

Fast forward to today. 2006 in America.

Many still feel as though "consumption" is a bad thing. They bemoan the "commercialism of Christmas". They lament the directionless "brand identities" that promise a euphoric experience, only to leave us hollow with an incredible lack of substance. I say this is the wrong way to accept Capitalism as an ideal for living. In order to fully appreciate the fredoms that Capitalism brings us as an ideology, Capitalism must be embraced as a balance of consumption and hard work.

Without the "hard work" part. Capitalism is vapid and devoid of substance. However if you throw the "hard work" part back in, consumption becomes the reward for achieving a goal. It is the exact format the human spirit needs to exist and fourish. Capitalism, in this way is the only true ideology uniquely suited to the human condition. All other ideologies pale in comparison to the strength of harnessing the human condition.

Fact is, Chrstmas really IS commercial. If it were not for the period of time between the day after Thanksgiving to the first of the year, I can think of at least 5 major business sectors that would not exist. The truth is (Virginia), Christmas is a Capitalist holiday. A virtual orgy of consumption and spending that lets the governing influences of capitalism know how to plan for the next year of spending and consumption. Thats a fact. Ask anyone in the financial services sector how that works.

So why can't we just relax and enjoy it? Why can't we just accept the idea that we vote with our wallets every day of the year? We live in a society that is the ultimate expression of he human condition. Our free spending and conspicuous ways are a monument to the true condition of human discourse and social growth. Like everything else "human" we want to deny it and hide it, but when you look around. When you really survey what we have created in America, the operative word is always "we". We are responsible for all this. We made it. We need to realize this and live with it productively or the Eulogy I wrote above will get written, and it will be true.

Is an Opportunity what you make it?

2006-09-05T07:56:00.000-04:00

I've been coming up with an interesting conundrum while looking for my next gig. As I look at all the various startups out there that I would like to get involved with, many of them are run by smart, focused people who are destined to succeed. At fist blush, it seems like a very high percentage of them will achieve their goals. Scratch the surface, and you elminate some of them, but you always wind up with more than one. Which leads me to the problem at hand, "What is the determining factor in successful deals."

As an entrepreneur, I always want to create businesses from the ground up. The most profitable business is one that is based in a unique and compelling value proposition to a large enough client base. This always means starting up from zero. However, the theme I am pursuing as an overarching goal is "streamlining". I've always thought that if I didn't find a compelling deal while looking at things with partners, that I would eventually try my idea of "Streamlining an existing, wrote, service business using technology and advanced people management processes.". This means I would need to buy an existing, wrote, service business. Which is altogether more difficult.

There are so many and so many variations on the same theme that they all seem to get lost in the din. Car Washes, Building Management Companies, Dry Cleaners, Auto Repair, et al all exist at voluminous levels. But once again we have to answer the question....."What is the determining factor in successful deals.' and now, how do you do that in a market full of service businesses that all seem to be the same?

More as I learn it........

It is getting hard not to get discouraged

2006-08-23T06:54:00.000-04:00

Today is day 10 of my due diligence effort on the state of call centers in the US, and it is getting very difficult to stay hopeful. I've spoken to entrepreneurs, politicians, lawyers, bankers, call center managers, and call center reps. Something that "jumps right off the page at you" is the complete lack of faith senior leaders have in the core workforce. When comparing India service workers with American services workers, the general consensus is that we (Americans) are under-educated, un-focused, and generally do not have the drive to succeed.

As an entrepreneur, I find it hard not to get outraged at something like this. It makes me want to change things, it makes me want to prove them wrong. However when you peel back the skin on that onion, they are consistently correct in the assumption. Why is this happening? Why is poker a career aspiration in the US? Entitlements. Government, state and local entitlements have truly formed a safety net in America, and many of my fellow countrymen have decided to take advantage of it.

We need less safety nets and more free markets. It seems that while we have been gleefully practicing the art and science of capitalism, we have simultaneously been undermining our workforce by getting them hooked on a socialist entitlement system. For the life of me I can not understand how this benefits us in the future. Look at the inner cities. The ONLY thing that works is free markets. Unfortunately, the largest free market in the inner city is drugs! Imagine what the person who organizes the intricate systems of runners, dealers, and enforcers that the drug trade plys could do if he/she were building a chain of auto supply stores. It surely isn't profit motive that should stop them. Running a multi-store chain is exceptionally profitable; much more profitable than the drug trade if you apply the risk premium of dying or going to jail!!!

It is this fundamental shift in perception that has to change. I advance that it is merely getting that drug dealer to realize the legitimate end to his/her organizational skills!!!

You can't legislate a living wage, you have to EARN it.

2006-08-17T14:40:00.000-04:00

As I examine all the ways that US business could compete with Offshore BPO outsourcing, the one thing that keeps coming up is that American companies can't beat the pricing that Offshore providers can offer. Salaries of 20,000.00 per year are commonplace in nations that support offshoring. This makes stateside, labor for labor comparisons almost pointless. Clearly US business and Offshore outsourcers of business processes are taking advantage of the disparity between standards of living between two nations.

I think that right now, you are probably going.....duh..... However lets examine this trend. If you consider that there is a finite amount of wealth in the world, and that assets shift according to where free markets roam. The US is on the incorrect side of an ever-increasing curve. As countries that support Offshore outsourcing gain in terms of labor, wealth and market share, the opposite relationship must occur on the other side of the curve. This means that the US must prepare for deflation of wages in order to balance out the gap between nations.

So, when I see things like this It proves to me that politicians are not governing for our future. They are merely satiating the panicked crowd. The reality is that you can't legislate what the free market is creating. You can't just swipe a pen and balance the massive gap between the standard of living in India and the standard of living in the US. As long as the ability to exploit these two differences using the revolution of technology communications exists, it will continue to erode the ability for wages in the US to evolve. Forcing stores to support a living wage without chaining the economic landscape just means......Less jobs. As companies close stores in areas that require a living wage either through bankruptcy or intelligence.

Americans should fight offshore outsourcing

2006-08-17T07:07:00.000-04:00

.....and I don't mean by endlessly complaining about politicians or crooked business people.

Why don't we COMPETE? We complain that we are losing thousands of middle and high tier service jobs to offshore concerns and I don't hear anyone tying to fight it! Why? Some say it is because we can NEVER compete with the wages people are willing to work for globally. But that just says that Americans are OVERPRICED! We say that about ourselves when we decide NOT to compete.

The answer is the combination of better, more innovative technology driving call center and BPO organizations combined with the active revitalization of inner city and low income areas. The truth is we can not count on the government to revitalize inner cities and low income areas. It is always the free market. Right now I see the same situation plaguing American inner cities and low income areas that was plaguing towns in India that were mired in the caste system.

It is five years later, and they are transforming while we are arguably getting worse. But that is when the Free Market comes in. There will be a point where offshore economies will begin to expand and their citizens will enjoy an ever increasing standard of living. Which is when the balance of opportunity will shift back American ideas and technology. The time to fight back is coming......I for one am going to be ready.

How to deal with a Venture Partner

2006-08-16T09:54:00.000-04:00

Maybe it is just the type of blogs I read, but for some reason, everyone wants to tell you how to deal with a Venture Capitalist. I see things like "The Top Ten Things when talking to VC." or other "lists" that seems to suggeest that someone actually knows how to manipulate a VC into liking your idea. I have to say it seems much more organic than that.

I've seen people get funded, and I've seen a lot more NOT get funded. The ones that actually DO move through the maze far enough to GET funded seem to be getting there not on some swift sales pitch, and not even on a good cash flow model. They just "click" with the overall tone and tenure of the firm doing the funding. It seems almost magical.

So, I would say, if you have to read "lists" to get funded. Your idea needs more work and isn't immediately compelling.

Back and Blogging....Looking for the next Gig.

2006-08-15T07:15:00.000-04:00

Nice to be back Blogging.

I took a bit of a vacation from blogging as I built my latest company, ReadyTechs (http://www.readytechs.com/). I've recently completed a transaction with my business partner to take control of ReadyTechs so now I am back at the grindstone looking for the next deal. Which, I currently think, is Call Centers.....or more specifically, Digital Contact Centers. A call center format using all forms of digital communications (VOIP, IM, Email, Web) to provide a higher level of contact to users.

If you are a call center owner or operator, please Email me. ethigent is interested in purchasing a tradtional call center to transform into a digital contact center, or partnering with an existing one to develop the technology needed to drive this.

REALLY Vote with your remote....

2005-10-30T09:14:00.000-05:00

I think that we should attempt to skew the way news is relayed to us, the information consuming public. The news networks keep saying that the reason they report what they report, when they report it is that they are in tune with what people want to watch.

Witness the latest news du jour.....the Libby/Rove indictments.

By every indicator I have, no one really knows or cares about this issue. I have not yet met anyone who can articulate the situation (outside of partisan "spin-based" sound bites) properly or accurately. I say this since not even the most unbiased of news organization can give "one" unified explaination of the issue (skewing either left or right).

Empty Meme = (adj.) An issue designed to carry the message of a partisan argument disguised as a relevant issue.

I don't know about you, but I find this insulting. Given the above, we can only conclude that this issue is what I would call an "Empty Meme". An issue designed to carry the message of a partisan argument. I mean, since when do we have the news networks telling us that someone "couple possibly be indicted in a few days?". No one seems to want to tell us about all the child molesters that "could possibly be indicted in the next few days!". In this case, the Dems use it to say that "The whole Iraqi war is a farce", the Repulicans use it to show case partisan spin and lack of control of the big picture. The networks seem to be the only people who care about this issue, and unfortunately that says a lot more about their partisan slants as news organizations than it does about their will to publish facutal reporting.

So I say that we really do "Vote with our Remotes". Every time you see an "Empty Meme" being reported on, like the Libby/Rove indictments, change the channel. While I do not think that the ratings are granular enough to see shifts in behavior based on news segments, the volatility between networks would be enough to make a case. If enough people did this, we could actually shape the way stories are reported to us. Imagine if news directors had to consider the "Empty Meme" dilemma and were forced to report facts based on thier own form of measurment.....ratings.

Remember! "If its an empty meme, change the screen!"

The Importance of Being Earnest....or.....Not Letting Things Hit You Over The Head

2005-05-16T19:45:00.000-04:00

It is coming. You can hear it. You can see it. You can even taste it in some instances. All you know is it is going to hit you hard when it gets here. It really dosn't matter what "it" is. It just matters that you see "it" before "it" hits you. "It" could be a baseball, a margin call, or a disgruntled employee. The only thing that matters is that you see "it".

Something that I see on the horizon of the markets is fear. I really don't think we have fully recovered from the idea that the fear bid is in the market forevermore. If they go down some gully in Pakistan and actually find Osama, that fear trade ain't going anywhere. Why? Because terror is now fully institutionalized.

You see, "it" in this case is fear. We are all fully invested in it. What Im wondering is what does that do to bonds and fixed income? If, indeed, fear is now with us forever, does that mean bonds stay here to, and any movement in this fear laden space is doomed to a trading range forever keeping the ten year under 5%? It certainly seems like it.

This all leads me to the conclusion that fear is a tax we have to level on everything form the GDP to the Fed Funds Rate. A modifier that ensures we dont get ahead of ourselves. It also creates an environment that I dont think any of us have ever had to deal with. An evironment based on the intangible nature of human fear response. The cure to which is only one thing. Politics and the leadership provided by the government. It is only with this that the fear trade disappears. Never before have politics so intertwined with finance.

Oil - The big head fake

2005-05-02T06:41:00.000-04:00

"Oil is going to kill our economy."

"We are addicts, and the Saudis are the pushers."

You hear commentators saying this all the time these days. Amazing to me how if you live long enough, you see things repeat themselves endlessly. Doesnt it feel like the 70's gas crunch is right around the corner?

If you read way back in my blog, you see a theme that suggests that the most evident meme in the news cycle is almost always false. It is the head fake of all head fakes. Yes. At this point in the game, the news media seems all too easy to manipulate. This is why one has to go a bit deeper.

There are three things you have ask yourself when you consider Oil.

1. Why doesn't the government raise the tax on Oil to a point where we HAVE to conserve? They force us to do other things, why not something so basic?
2. If we are so desparate for Oil, why do we allow Oil companies to have a choke hold on our import by accepting far too few REFINERIES.
3. Why do the economic models of most alternative fuel types fail miserably. BioDiesel (a full replacement for Diesel fuel) has been around since the 80s and can not be produced for less than 4.50 a gallon!

It all smells of manipulation. Dont forget, we have had a decade of Oil doing nothing so there has been ample time to rig the system up right with hedges, non-compete deals, and inventory grabs. Yes. Manipulation.

Now, please do think me one of these conspiracy theorists, nor to I think this is a way to simply bilk the American wallet. I feel like in free markets, a certain amount of manipulation is appropriate. However once you start manipulating at the level where national economies are affected, the story has to change. Yes. Oil has always been about power, and in times of contention becomes the central player (Vietnam). So here we are, another thing you can tie back to the global war on Terror.

Finish terrorism, and you will finish this Oil hoard.

Back After a Year of Nothing

2005-04-26T09:09:00.000-04:00

Back!

After a full year, Ive come back to continue my markets insight in this blog.

I found it immensely helpful to go back to this blog to see where my trading style has led me, and to see if my predictions were correct. I feel quite vindicated on both fronts. My endless rantings about the incorrectness of the media, and the herd mentality of the markets (both needing to be shunned) seemed to pay off well. Please read the blog posts from last year. Yes there are some dog calls in there, but there are also some great picks.....like KMRT....which at this point, many are saying is the next Berkshire Hathaway.

But that was then and this is now. I dont intend to do the morning/afternoon stuff like I used to. Ill be posting at least twice a week with more macro views on the direction of the most liquid markets in the world......the US equity and bond markets. I also intend to write a bit on the venture capital scene and deals that are getting done that interest me.

See ya in the blogosphere!

Gerry

Meme Watch - The Iraqi Effort is Falling Apart

2004-05-24T18:16:00.000-04:00

If you watch a broad spectrum of the media news outlets, I really don't know how you can tell WHAT is happening in Iraq. I watch NBC and they have all but written the effort off, acting as if we should be getting out immediately. Then I turn on Fox and actual soldiers are on TV saying that Iraq really isn't that bad. How in the world can you gauge the geopolitical risk?

While listening to a popular radio program the other day, I heard a soldier tell the host that he is 3 times as frightened about Iraq while watching the news media in the US, than he is while he is actually in Iraq. What is that saying? How are we to react to a news media that seems to want to hold us hostage to the lens with which they view the situation?

Is it just politics? Are we merely moving through a political cycle where everything (including the disruption of a nation) is fair game? Would this have worked during World War 2? Could we have fought a World War while obsessing about abuses in one prison camp? How many prison camps were there in World War 2? Do you mean to tell me this is the FIRST time this has happened? I say no. The only thing different is that the media has become ubiquitous. It seems wrong to me.

Not my job to judge here though. My job is to game this. So, as in any game I have to believe that you have to play this AWAY from the major networks. There is clearly a disconnect with their base when they feed this constant slam on the US administration. They forget that Americans always fall back on pride. Telling them that they have nothing to be proud of is a losers game. This will affect their revenues and further decentralize the average viewer. Making them more niche oriented as Cable variety moves in to fill the void (the harbinger of all this being the Fox New Channel).

Short and sweet. Here is how I would play this:

1. Short the networks and their associated stocks. They will loose viewers as alternatives from cable grow stronger. Mis-steps like their current jag only serve to further destabilize their base.
2. Buy cable companies with broadly diversified offerings for subscriber revenue. They will be the benefactor of the major network exodus.
3. Sell Major Advertising concerns. They will be faced with a landscape of smaller "cable savvy competitors as the network loose their clout. Their contracts with the major networks will render them useless.
4. Buy Niche oriented content plays. Buy networks, both interactive and cable video that cater to wide niches of people that have been overlooked by the networks.
5. Do not buy Network Sponsored entities. These are cable and content outlets that are owned by the networks and thus tied to their downward spiral. Buy scalable pure plays.

That is how I would play it.

DISCLAIMER: I own some stock that fit the above categories. However I do not own many and may have positions that contradict the above advice.

Cruelty- The ultimate backhand from the Market

2004-05-20T06:18:00.000-04:00

Yesterday was just a cruel day for equities. Just cruel. We started the day up big, held it all day long, only to be sold off to a down 30 on the Dow by the time it was all over. Volume surged in the last hour as well, lending an exclamation point on this market that said "Nope, everyone is still too happy and optimistic for the market to move higher.". For those of us who are long, days like yesterday hold an irony reserved only for fools who try to divine the future.

Another funny thing I'm beginning to observe is the complete lack of reference for the type of movement we are seeing. Well respected writers I follow say things like "Why is this happening? I don't know." or "I have no idea who actually buys and sells these types of moves, but I'm sure glad they are there.". A complete lack of perspective.

Most say it is because Oil continues to make higher highs, the 10 year is now hovering around 4.80, and there is a general lack of urgency coming from the Fed.....Not to mention Iraq. I'm sure it is all of those things, but I'm starting to feel like we need to simply game the psychology and forget about fundamentals. When I get to this point, I always stop and remind myself that I'm not in this to fall folly to that markets whims. I'm in this to grow my investments at a more aggressive pace than a bond or a mutual fund. So I sit back down, take my hands off the keyboard, and stop trading. Which I will not do until some semblance of order comes back to this market. I suspect that the reason we can't break support or surge past resistance is because my view is a popular one.

Trading Track - A glimmer of hope in K-Mart

2004-05-18T08:37:00.000-04:00

Ed. Note - We have added the ability to comment on these posts. Please let me know your thoughts! Just click on the comments link below each post, scroll to the bottom of the next page and add a comment! - GJL

Check out the action in K-Mart. Just bursting upward with no restraint. I'm encouraged by this since K-Mart got relentlessly pounded last year for poor management, slow growth, and underperformance in comps. The reason I'm encouraged is that K-Mart seems to be a bottom low enough for investment, and thus starts to show us where stocks need to be valued in order to move up in this market.

I'm sure you are going to stare in disbelief when I write that I'm hoping we go down further. K-Mart is WAY DOWN, and it now has upward momentum. The rest of the market, unfortunately, is not WAY DOWN enough to equal where K-Mart is rebounding. So we continue to drift around, never creating enough down draft to create a sustainable rally. I believe in this ideal fully. Market momentum is perhaps the most powerful thing it can provide us.

Heres hoping for Dow 9000!!! I hope I'm wrong, but without geopolitical catalysts, and without significant changes in business momentum, I'm afraid all we have is market momentum.

Trading Track - Gaming the 1990 Scenario

2004-05-17T09:52:00.000-04:00

I'm hearing that traders are starting to compare this market to the 1990 scenario (Post War Daddy Bush's long slide into oblivion). The idea is that we have to price in a complete rollback of the last year to the beginning of the war, because inflation will kill the consumer, and the banks, and everyone is coming along for the ride. It is at times like these when we question the nature of our recovery in the US, and indeed the world.

I've always found that it is best to stop and take a pause at this type of juncture. We have been here before...Recently...From the 1987 crash, to the first Iraqi War, to the Dot Bomb Bubble, to 9/11, to Madrid. You have to look at the world and ask yourself if doomsday is actually around the corner, and make your trading judgments as a result of what you see. Right now I see instability. That is for sure. A geopolitical situation fraught with uncertainty and the ability to spiral out of control at a moment's notice.

I urge you all to see that while we seem to be teetering on the brink of something we all have no clue how to game, we have never actually gone over the brink. Right now the market is pricing in some sort of cataclysmic crush of problems that will seem to actually defeat our economy soundly. This is an extreme sentiment to say the least. The strength of the US business landscape is great enough to overcome this type of crush. The question is, when will the markets decide that they are at a level low enough to stop the onslaught of selling.

Indexes - Not even thinking about this yet.
Bonds - Had some trading activity here. Took advantage of some of the higher yields in the 18 year range, and took down a block of Floaters with good structure. I have a feeling that these trades are going to look even better once we start seeing the fear bid come back into bonds.
Equities - I'm getting shelacked. That's all I can say. I'm almost fully committed with about 3% cash left. If I try to take advantage of lower levels, I will have to start liq'ing down positions. I don't feel comfortable with that, particularly since this is clearly an exercise to wipe out all the bravado that was in the market. I feel like we can ride it out and not liq anything. Yes. I'm getting killed on all plays from raw materials, to the cable plays to the tech, to the advertising. Scaling into oil stocks over the last three weeks has been a buoy and kept the PF from falling. Right now I'm about to take the stance that most of my stocks pay divs and I'm just going to get paid to wait this one out doing no activity at all. Somehow I think that some angles will materialize and Ill start trading around the market again. Nothing right now.

Meme Watch - Rebound and The Election Year Media

2004-05-15T10:57:00.000-04:00

Rebound

Watch carefully. There are a lot more signs that the market is bottoming out from this recent sell off. Did I get caught by surprise? Yup. Was I 80% committed at Dow 10,500? Absolutely. Do I have average downs the whole way back through 10,000. Most definitely.

Why? Because the sell pressure is subsiding. Things just cant go down much further without taking out stops that will bring us to Dow 8500. No one thinks we are going back there with an earnings picture like we have, and with economic indicators coming in the way they are. Even Inflation seems to be capped with a Fed number of about 2.5 to 3. That says we have a floor, and a top. A range that we are at the bottom of.

I know. I'm a bull. I can't help it. Believe me, two years ago, I was holding dividend paying stock only and not trusting market action at all. I guess you could say that I traded my way through the bad, and this is nothing compared to the market in 2001 and 2002. Back then we had to trade against abysmal earnings, and even worse economic numbers.

The Election Year Media

This can not be discounted the way everyone seems to be going along with it. Lets face it, the main media outlets are gunning for Bush. They report all of the bad and let the good bubble up every once and a while. Is it our fault? They seem to think that we WANT to hear this scandalous stuff. When I talk to people and read the blogs I read, I don't see that. I see people who want to have pride in their country as we are under siege and turn away from news that makes us feel shame. That's all I hear from the news outlets. Shame on the military, shame on Bush, shame on Rumsfeld, shame on the greedy CEOs, and on and on and on and on.

They are either working for the terrorists, or they want to change the political picture. Since Tom Brokaw wouldn't be able to survive in a cave without his "product", I have to believe that they are trying to affect politics. That is manipulation, and we have to turn away from it. Yet the markets seem to want to react to it. The trader in me KNOWS I have to game it that way, but the citizen in me, the US citizen who has invested in both the economic, municipal, and political landscape wants to expose it and bring it down. I have a feeling that it is going to have to be a little of both for me for now.

Trading Track - What more is there to say?

2004-05-12T14:35:00.000-04:00

Many of you have emailed me wondering about my thoughts with this market. I haven't posted because I don't think anything has changed since my last post. We are getting the thing that I always knew we would have to face, the interest rate motivated selloff. The knee jerk reaction that most traders get when faced with a new interest rate environment. I was expecting it AFTER the Fed started to tighten, but I have to say I'm glad we are getting it out of the way. I know, this is exceptionally painful for the longs out there (of which I am now fully 100% a member of).

The nice thing about this move down is that we are wringing out a lot of the weak hands involved in the last run up. Many of whom were wondering if they should sell weeks ago, now see themselves at breakeven or a little worse and just capitulating. They have now had enough pain and want to make it stop.

I believe that this sets us up for a big run north after all the capitulation is done. But then again, I've been saying that for two weeks now (thus the lack of posting). Here is the fundamental thesis that works the same way that saying the jobs numbers were wrong when everything else was pointing to a better economy. This is economy is now solidly growing and expanding. This is something that was not present when we crashed so hard in 2000. Everything looked like it was behind us then. Now everything is in front of us and we have the economic engine to participate. People may be selling, but it sure isn't because business is bad. That is flawed logic, and I have to buy that.

Meme Watch - Inflation - Again

2004-05-06T06:06:00.000-04:00

I'm getting very concerned about the future for growth in the stock market. Although a healthy dose of human nature should cure the condition, I feel like once interest rates ACTUALLY start rising, everyone is going to loose their heads. We have not even had ONE FED TIGHTENING, and everyone is acting like this is the end of things for stocks. What happens when things actually start going up and stay up? Its like watching a junkie wean off crack.

How do we play this? I've got some good sized bets on raw materials, cable, tech, and ad spending for medium term turns in stocks, and I'm starting to nibble at some bonds again. As yields perk up, there are some good deals in the "slightly under 20 year" range in munis so I picked some up yesterday with some new dollars from the stock PF. So, in a word, this next stretch in the market is going to be selective stock picking and a migration to better yields.

Trading Track - Uneasy relief

2004-05-05T07:16:00.000-04:00

I really don't like what the general markets meme likes these days. I ask myself all they time why I feel different about it but I cant seem to work it through. Yesterday, the Fed came out and said that they were not raising right now, but that that they may act soon and in small "measured" levels. Meaning they would start tightening in .25 or .50 bp moves over a protracted period of time. The markets liked this because, while they don't like higher rates, they favor a slow, inch by inch approach.

I continue to wonder why the market feels this way. I wonder why we are paying attention at all until the fec gets to 2.5 or 3!!! That would put us in the mid range. For those of you counting, that would mean the Fed will need to do FOUR tightenings at .50 or EIGHT tightenings at .25! Eight tightenings would last two years using this approach. Even THEN we would still only be at a nominal FF rate. I don't think that the world is going to wait this long and the forces of inflation will creep up on the Fed and overwhelm it.

This says two things to me....Change the stock strategy, and wait for higher rates because they are right around the corner. Inflation isn't in check folks, and just because the government says that food, gas and general services costs are not part of inflation doesn't mean that the consumer doesn't get hit.

So....

Indexes - Still dormant here. Cant game a 10,000 to 11,000 range on the Dow when you are in the middle of it.

Individual Stock - Commodity recovery seems to be taking on some steam. Steep recovery in PD and a slight one in AA. CHRT getting hit but I remain steady on it and am looking to buy more at 3.5 if I get the chance. CMCSA recovering nicely after they dropped the Disney bid. About to go positive on CMCSA. Nice gain and holding in Estee Lauder. Going to liq it soon. EMC still down but inching back. Jury is still out on this one.

Bonds - Had a setback on a new CMO I was purchasing, had to bust the trade. Now have more FX cash than I'd like. Trying to hold out for a nice 5% muni. Going to wait as long as I can before the income picture starts to bother me. Gave up on trying to do a Treasury. Rather buy a muni instead.

Meme Watch - America is bad

2004-05-02T10:56:00.000-04:00

First off, I believe in America and the American way of doing things. I'm a free markets kind of guy and would be pleased if absolutely EVERYTHING was open to a free and open marketplace. In this meme-watch, Id like to examine the prevalent, recurring meme (as opposed to a single, fading meme) that America, on a global scale equals domination, corruption and greed. This meme is affecting our markets in the terrorism/fear bid that surfaces in safe havens at the slight hint of geopolitical discord. Therefore it is important to develop a thesis about the meme and apply it to our trading methodology.

Here is what I feel the big secret is about "The America is Bad" meme. I always ask myself the question "As opposed to what?"......As opposed to Saddam? Nope. As opposed to the EU? The ever-capitulating, ever transient polices of the EU? Nope. As opposed to the Spanish Socialists? I'm not even going to answer that. As opposed to Putin? I think he has his own issues. America isn't bad, America is a mirror. America lets you see what happens under the covers whether you like it or not......And here is the big pitch, the big irony of this whole meme......It goes on EVERYWHERE, all the time, in all forms of badness. No one is immune, no country rules or governs better than the other....It is all messy, ugly, and insults the sensibilities. America is the ultimate victim of its' freedom. BUT THAT DOES NOT MAKE IT BAD.

This is why when we get these panic selloffs because of this meme, we should buy the weakness with both hands. Because the reality of it is, while we may seem bad for the moment, most realists examine the situation and realize that there isn't anything better than American freedom, which is why even though selloffs are bleak and the bears wring their hands. Dollars ultimately come back to the American markets. Always have, and always will until there is a better form of freedom. I wont hold my breath, and neither should you.

Trading Track - Winning the mental tug of war.

2004-04-30T17:46:00.000-04:00

Jim Cramer said it best "....Did you really think that after a week like this, that we would rally into the weekend with every potential for bad news available and at the ready?".

Still taking massive amounts of pain, but Im winning the mental tug of war to cash it all in and go to bonds. Portfolio is off 5% at this point, and I have no reason to believe that Monday will bring new positive catalysts. In fact the ONLY catalyst out there is the fact that people might just get tired of selling eventually. I'm not swayed, and my hands remain strong. I'm a bull at heart and I continue to look at pullbacks like this as working off the outstanding year we had last year. Although I must admit that this selloff is stinging a lot worse than the last two. Our economy is working like gangbusters and we are emerging from a tough recession. The action this week seems to assume that we are going back to 2002. No way....Didn't work last year, wont work now.

Individual Stock - Let go of the last bit of Echostar for a loss. I couldn't in all good faith carry it any longer with the bets I've made on CMCSA and CHTR. Plus I don't need the extra drag right now. CHTR is getting hit, but I'm only a buyer under 4. If we get to 3.5, Ill take down another 500 shares. Took down another hundo IR today about 2% under my cost basis. PD and AA continue to get hit but are showing bottoming support (no consolation here since we are off big numbers right now), so I feel like we are getting stable with raw materials. FOLKS!! THERE ARE MORE GROWING NATIONS WHO NEED METALS THAN CHINA!! These stocks have become sources of huge amounts of pain.

Bonds - Liq'd nice chunk of cash representing my total realized gain for the year out of the stock PF and Im starting to look at a muni to replace it with. I'm not going to pull the trigger until I can get a +- 10 year muni in the high 4s. Want to buy the 10 year at 5 as well if it can get there. Saving floater income for that. CMO paper seems stable for now and are paying down nicely. Had some big paydowns last month for some and my principal came in quite a bit. Resisting the urge to do any more right now and saving it for the Muni or the T-Bill.

Index - My Q long that was so close to 2080 is now also producing pain. We really didn't see this slide coming so everywhere I look on the indexes are lost opportunities. May consider doubling down the Q stake soon if we get any more oversold. If the market gets too ridiculous, Ill get back into index moves, however right now I'm not going to do anything that produces anymore pain potential.

Meme Watch - Pain

2004-04-29T18:37:00.000-04:00

Okay. Those of you who have been reading me for a bit know that I called for a second decline, similar to what we are now experiencing. The selling, the dirge of selling, is scary, and the fearful rule on the street this evening. The averages are down big at this point, we were oversold days ago and now we are worse.

One might think this is it. This is the big flush.... It is all downhill from here.

Thats why tonight's Meme Watch is Pain. The state of pain that the news, your broker, your portfolio, and pretty much anyone who is following the market wants you to reflect. Down here is where pain is produced. We need pain to ensure that stock changes hands and builds a base to move higher. We had no pain at all up until a day ago. Now we have real pain and those who are weak will capitulate. This is why this is NOT the big flush, but the forced rush downward in order to coil the spring.

The reason I want to highlight this very prevalent meme should be obvious. You buy when there is blood in the streets and you sell when euphoria is highest. I believe that the markets are beginning to pay their final penance for the stellar year they printed last year. Yes, I believe that when the pain is this intense, you force yourself to buy.

Here are my catalysts, one by one:

China - Everyone thinks that the government there is going to slam the brakes on the growth, forcing Asia into a recession. Just like all the other one day wonders that the news produces, this theme is being over reacted to. We now have PD and AA selling down huge (talk about pain), and all for what? A promise from a previously inept government to reign in the overwhelming forces of capitalism? No way. I'm sticking with my raw materials focus which at this point is a large part of my PF.

The 10 Year - 4.52 makes me smile. Id like to see it move higher but I really want the sell off in bonds to take a breather for a minute. In the grand scheme of things, we are going to 5 on the 10 year by year end, but I would like to see the bond market sell off more orderly. I'm still on the sidelines here. This erratic move higher is also spooking the markets something fierce.

Earnings - I really don't know what to make of this. By all accounts, earnings were out of the park outrageously great. Yet we have this continued selloff. This brutal, unrelenting selloff. My confusion is not why this is happening ("sell the news"), but how to price these great quarters and guidance into a market that cant keep a bottom. I believe that this is going to ultimately be a catalyst higher if we can mount an upward move any time soon. Let me tell ya though, the economy is back big.

2004-04-29T18:36:00.000-04:00

Trading Track - Range Bound starting to move to upside

2004-04-27T09:57:00.000-04:00

The PFs are pretty stable in here. I have a raw material, advertising, cable/entertainment, tech, mix going on and the current action keeps it pretty steady in the middle. I'm looking for an upside break past earnings on economic news that further supports what we are seeing in earnings. I feel like everyone is looking at the run we had in the beginning of 2004 and saying that we priced great earnings in. They seem to forget the slow painful Naz selloff, but that's okay.

- Index - Still holding the Q long trying to get out at the 2080 level. No Diamonds or IShares positions.
- Individual Stock Highlights - Not much trading action. Waiting for my big PD bet to start moving higher on realization of the shortage in copper. My HAL position is finally rocketing higher. People need to realize that HAL earns their money the hard way and is a great American institution. Can't figure out the DD position. 25% increase in earnings and they sell it off. Not like they ran it up to high to begin with.
- Bonds - Unwinding the inverse floaters....Moving some of the principal into the 10 year above 4.50 (still waiting). Sniffing around for good Muni yields.

Meme Watch - Inflation

2004-04-24T00:04:00.000-04:00

I like to watch "memes" work their way through the media. A "meme" is a fairly recent phenomenon. As far as I can tell, a "meme" is a general ideal or theme prevalent in the current news cycle. Ya know how sometimes it just seems like all the media is talking about the same thing? That's a meme. Some of them impact that markets, and some of them don't.

One current meme I'm tracking is the Inflation meme. This is the story that takes a look at isolated numbers and attempts to show that Inflation is in danger of getting out of control. This is a very new meme for our economy since only months ago the Fed regarded Inflation risks as equal to Deflation risks. However this meme has found it's way into the psyche of the stock trader's head and the talking head alike. Why would we be getting the best earnings reports in years, yet have the stock market seem downright uninterested? The Inflation meme.

Now I've been on what seems to have been a never ending search for inflation for the last two years and I feel very comfortable in reporting that there IS core inflation going on (raw materials, hard goods, et al). However the real measure of inflation, the cost of money, is still quite low and likely to move slowly up the inflation scale. Imagine a big jumbo airliner taking off at super slow motion. So the truth is that inflation is coming, but it is coming at us slowly giving us enough time to reposition and prepare.

The moral of this meme? Get ready to get ready, and be forewarned, but don't jump off a cliff.

Trading Track - Current Market Strategy

2004-04-23T06:36:00.000-04:00

Trading Track is going to be a new ethi-Letter feature. It is a quick, memo-style analysis of current trading strategies I'm employing broken up by Index, Individual Stock, and Bond plays. Kind of like a quick temperature of my trading activity.

1. Index - Long QQQ Looking to bail on some at 2080 Naz
2. Individual Stock - Picked up a bunch of PD at 68...Halved my cost basis. Caught a 1.75 updraft the next day. Went deeper on CHTR, waiting for convertible refunding to wash out the shorts and go higher. FRX is disappointing after a similar low end double and lost almost 3 points, not sure I want in anymore. Holding over 2000 IACI on a breakout yesterday on the Amazon numbers, looking for big upside here.
3. Bonds - Shut down and not doing anything. Waiting to see where interest rates shake out over the near term (Oct). Have a large stake of Inverse Floaters (CMOs) that I want to let unwind for a while. Not too worried about Rates getting out of control since we have no reason to believe that things wont be as orderly on the way up as they were on the way down. This says my floaters can unwind fully just in time to turn over some refunding next year and go straight into 10 year Munis.

Taking a victory lap...

2004-04-23T06:26:00.000-04:00

Yesterday the Dow, Naz, and S&P blew the doors off. Huge gains across the board...2, 3 percent in some cases. This is the moment when buying at the bleakest possible moment pays off and you watch your hard work pay off. I sometimes think of this exercise as the "price" I pay to actively trade the market. The act of overcoming fear and doubling up your position on a stock that is already down 10 points (Phelps Dodge for me, Alcoa for others yesterday). Having enough courage and conviction to hold everything all the way through a down turn. Wondering, "Does the market have a bottom close to where I've made this huge bet?".

But then a day like yesterday happens. You feel the palpable turning of the tide and realize that you just paid your price and now you can take your profits.

Looking for a big follow through today to put us on a path up. Interest rates seem to have worked their way through the news "meme" cycle and we are now left with a slew of outstanding earnings reports to propel the market for a bit. I'm hoping for a couple days of upside before we try to work anything off. I still think we have one more big down turn to go before we go for Dow 11,000.

FUD - Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt

2004-04-21T15:59:00.000-04:00

When I hear someone say "FUD", cash registers ring in my head. Never has there been a better motivator to separate you from your cash. If you are going to trade the market, you have to resist FUD. Youhave to reject it completely. If your trading thesis has been established, and over the course of the day the market takes you into never-never land, you resist FUD impulses. If every economic indicator points to recovery, but the jobs number wont budge, you resist FUD impulses and buy......and when the Fed Gov starts talking and the weak hands start wringing.....you go on vacation...completely rejecting FUD.

Right now is the time to be looking at this market for the earnings growth, the snappy balance sheets, and most importantly the "buzz". Will the Fed raise rates sooner than later? I say Yes. Will the markets hate this idea...absolutely. Will the weak hands sell off, creating an opportunitiy? As sure as the sun will shine. I say "Step up and participate in the market here. You are buying the begining of a recovery and historically that has been a great time to either buy and hold OR trade."

Living with the weak and feeble.

2004-04-20T20:25:00.000-04:00

Man, never is it more evident that weakness and fear rules the markets than when Mr. Greenspan speaks. Today was a doozy. The guy just hints at the fact that interest rates could go up without much pain and the markets sell off in a panic. The logic here is that higher interest rates are bad for stocks.

What all the weak-willed, moral relativists are forgetting is that we are currently sitting at historically low interest rate levels! The Fed could raise the Fed Funds rate almost two whole points (they tend to do things in quarters or half points) and only be at even when it comes to historic rate levels. So why the sell off if the boys move the FF rate a half point in June? Why? Fear, and weak hands.

Now is the time to be buying.....we have a long way to go once everyone wakes up and realizes that we are merely at the beginning of a glorious US expansion. So go ahead sucker...sell that stock....Im waiting over here to buy it cheap and sell it back to you 20% higher when you get over your lack of rationality.

Home on the range.

2004-04-19T16:04:00.000-04:00

I hate range bound markets. I don't like the risk/reward of trying to time a range, and when you are wrong, you wind up giving back any profits you made from calling the range correctly.

Today I decided to hang out a bit before I posted to see if anything different or significant would happen. Not a thing. Pretty much all day we bashed around the range. You know...The range between Naz 1980 and 2080? I'm a bit hard pressed to do anything until we get a confirmation of an upward or downward bias. So far I don't know anyone who has been able to call this correctly.

Which leads me to interest rates. Some would say that the reason we have a range bound market is because no one is sure what the impact of higher interest rates will have on the market. This is the key reason why I'm buying dips and special situations right now. Everyone knows the answer is that rate movement under 3 points on the Fed Number only gets us back to normal rates! This is a fact historically, and we have no reason to believe that this will not occur now.

Therefore we need to be buying. Once everyone wakes up and realizes that we can own stocks as the Fed tightens we will go higher. Lower would be an insult to anyone's sense of historical relevance or accuracy.